Friday, July 10, 2015

Syria -- Looking at the Future

Obaida Fares was born on April 19, 1978, in Aleppo, Syria and relocated to Jordan at a young age. He completed a Bachelor in Economics at Al al-Bayt University in Jordan, where he currently resides. Over the past several years, he has attended approximately 120 classes in the fields of human rights, democracy and youth work.

Mr. Fares worked as a consultant for The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) (2001-2003) in the field of early childhood and youth. He was subsequently employed in a similar role the British Council in the field of family protection.

Presently, Mr. Fares serves as the bureau chief of the regional office of the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy (CSID) headquartered in Washington, DC. He is an author and an editor (individually and collectively) of several books in the fields of human rights, democracy, and family protection.

This summary of the Syrian tragedy is a Google translation from Pier 22 blog. 
A generation of illiterate Syrians is now growing up. 
Obeida Fares
huge challenges facing Syria and the future caused by the war produced five sets

Since the beginning of 2014, the Syrian humanitarian crisis has become the biggest in the world. This was reflected in the disastrous effects on the Syrian community in Syria, and the refugee community abroad, and the host communities.

International organizations can no longer believes that the necessary financial resources to deal with these crises, prompting her to pursue a policy of extinguishing fires to secure the basic requirements, and minimum limits. With exhausted relief Syrian, regional and humanitarian institutions, and drained its resources in food, housing insurance for millions of people in need.

Under such circumstances, the thinking about the future is a kind of luxury for the social domain specialists, due to the depletion of inventory of all the resources in the immediate effects of the difficult conditions experienced by the Syrians.

But a study of similar cases in other countries indicate that the recovery of the society from the effects of similar crises will not be easy, even if it had secured political conditions that restore the living conditions to its natural state, and that it may take decades until the community is recovering from the effects of the current crisis, especially for some groups that it is not the facilitator returned to normal life. We will address five sets here Stotr heavily on the future of Syria.

First: Education

It exposed the educational process major damage , especially in the off-system control areas, either because of the destruction of schools, or because of the support from the interruption of the educational process, or because of child labor, a key factor in the interruption of 75% of students for education.

And estimated the number of children who do not have access to education at the beginning of 2014 by about 3 million children. At the beginning of 2015 it was estimated by the United Nations that half of school-age children are not in regular educational process.

In addition to the interruption of school students about education, all students who are in the age of the system beyond the control of the university study areas, did not go to university over the past years. This means certainly that Syria will witness the emergence of a generation of illiterate, will be a burden on the development process, and will not be able to integrate with their peers from learners.

The Higher Education outages in certain areas (often in rural towns), in parallel with the children a break in the same areas for basic education, means focused economic and social burden to city centers to rural areas account, and perhaps more than the image that had this superiority at the beginning of the twentieth century .

Second: Displaced people and displaced

Forced more than half of the Syrians to leave their homes as refugees and refugees. The number of refugees Syrians today about 4 million, and this figure includes non-registered in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, and who are still waiting for their registration.

Many of these left their country nearly four years ago, it is no longer for many of them as possible to return to it, having lost their homes or their shops. As most of them they did not engage in any work during these years, and depend entirely on aid.

It will not be easy to re-integrate all of these in the job market again, and they will need special training programs to return to their normal lives, away from humanitarian assistance, total dependence on others.

Third: the owners of the destroyed houses

There are no accurate data at any point on the scale of the devastation that hit the private and public facilities during the last years of the conflict, but it is estimated that 1.0002 million A home at least has been destroyed.

With the continuation of the war and the bombing of the system, the more homes will be destroyed on a daily basis, until it became certain neighborhoods that were crowded in the past is viable, such as Salah al-Din neighborhood in Aleppo and neighborhoods of the old city of Homs.

Even if it could any future government after the stability of bringing international aid, the rebuilding of this number of houses will need to budget at least $ 60 billion, a figure that will not be easy to secure, especially with the presence of other needs not less urgent. There are 5,000 schools at least suffered total or partial demolition of what leads them out of service, also destroyed 36% of the hospitals as well as roads, bridges and sewage networks and water and electricity networks.

Residents of these houses crisis is not limited to demolish their homes and wait for reconstruction, the junction of the real value of homes in need of specialized committees lacked a long time until the end of its work, and the owners and tenants will find themselves in front of a legal dilemma to prove the nature of the contracts that were bound together by demolishing their homes, as well as to lose a lot of ownership decades, as a result of the targeting of the Land Registry in more than one city, and the most important of the Land Registry in Homs, which targeted missile system in 01/07/2013, to burn all the records.

Fourth generation fighters

It is working with a military battalions doors Limited available to young people to get a job in the off-system control areas. It is not known how many fighters in all the opposition factions, but the number is not less than all estimates for a hundred thousand. This at a time when shares of thousands of supporters of the regime engaged in ongoing battles in military militias.

It will not be possible for any future government to integrate all these people in the state army, will not be easy for these fighters to give up power which Taudoha in previous years, or even a return to normal civilian life.

Note that these fighters were involved, or at least viewed on a daily basis, much of the violence, so the return to civilian life without appropriate qualification will be a source of social violence and even family.

Fifth: the disabled

There are no reliable figures for the number of wounded and disabled in Syria, but estimates indicate that 5-10% of the population in the inflamed areas are suffering from injuries, and the rights to draw estimates that every barrel of explosive falling in a residential area leads, at least, to the injury of five people of different physical disabilities, note that in 2014 alone witnessed a fall of more than 11,000 barrels. And international estimates confirm the existence of three disabled children for every child killed during the war.

These persons will suffer from the difficult economic conditions, as a result of the link known between disability and poverty , with less possibility of these get suitable jobs, and less access to training and education opportunities compared to other members of the community, especially in developing countries, which have passed civil wars.

It will increase the economic burden on the families of these people, because of health and daily care they need, especially if the state did not provide physical care for them, which is not available in Syria before 2011, is not expected getting in Syria's future Tee considerable material burdens.

As expected exposure of these persons to the violence, in addition to the high probability of exposure to secondhand discrimination in society, especially in the absence of friendly facilities for the disabled, and the weakness of the culture of dealing with persons with disabilities in the community.

Syria: What future?

Stersh any future government in Syria under a huge physical burdens, start of reconstruction costs, and will not end applications for compensation to the victims and detainees and missing persons, and in parallel with the political and social crises resulting from the remnants of years of crisis that does not know to the day when it will end and how.

It will not be local resources, economic and human, meet and unusual huge needs at all levels can, and therefore in need of international Marshall Plan to help them return to the path of development, albeit slowly.

Except that the future needs require now a change in the donor institutions, policies, international and domestic, to move to meet the immediate needs of food, medicine and non-food assistance, to development assistance that encourage the target on access to the labor market, instead of getting used to the culture of receiving aid, and support projects small development inside and outside Syria to provide job opportunities for young people, and support education projects in particular.

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