Most Americans do not realize how much the Iraq war was a predecessor to the current Israel and US attempts to cause "regime change" in Iran. One aim of the war in Iraq was to disrupt the Islamic government leadership in Iran. One reason that did not happen was that large Shia populations in both countries worked against that objective.
The majority of Marsh Arabs (also known as the Ma'dan) are Shia Muslims, specifically belonging to the Twelver Shi'i branch.
Key details regarding their religious and cultural identity include:
- Affiliation: They are overwhelmingly Shia, with estimates placing the population at approximately 99.60% Shia.
- Religious Sites: Their holy cities are Karbala and Najaf, and they have a long history of association with Shia tribes in Iran.
- Syncretic Beliefs: While primarily Muslim, many Marsh Arabs maintain pre-Islamic or extra-Islamic traditions and rituals.
- Minority Groups: Small communities of Mandaeans (a non-Muslim gnostic group) have traditionally lived alongside them in the marshes, often working as specialized craftsmen.
- Historical Context: During the 1991 uprisings in Iraq, the Marsh Arabs were targeted by Saddam Hussein’s government (which was Sunni-dominated) specifically because they were perceived as a Shia stronghold and a sanctuary for Shia rebels.
Iraq's
religious landscape is dominated by Islam, with a majority Shia population and a significant Sunni minority. These affiliations play a critical role in the current regional tensions involving the U.S.
, Israel
, and Iran
, as Iraq often serves as a primary battleground for their proxy conflicts.Main Religious Affiliations in Iraq
According to 2024–2025 estimates, approximately 95% to 98% of Iraqis are Muslim.
- Shia Muslims: Comprise 61% to 64% of the population. They are predominantly Arab and concentrated in the south and east, including Baghdad.
- Sunni Muslims: Comprise 29% to 34% of the population. This group includes Sunni Arabs (approx. 24%) and nearly all Iraqi Kurds (approx. 15%).
- Minorities: Make up roughly 1% to 3%. This includes Christians (fewer than 150,000 remaining), Yazidis, Mandaeans, and Yarsanis.
Impact on the U.S./Israel vs. Iran Conflict
The sectarian and ethnic divisions in Iraq directly influence the country's involvement in broader regional wars:
- Iranian Influence via Shia Militias: Iran maintains a potent "Axis of Resistance" within Iraq, leveraging Shia paramilitary groups like Kataib Hezbollah. These groups frequently target U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria in response to U.S. support for Israel, such as the January 2024 drone strike that killed three U.S. troops.
- Strategic Dilemma for Baghdad: The Iraqi government, led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani(a Shia), must balance its ties to Iran with its strategic partnership with the U.S.. While some factions call for the total expulsion of U.S. troops, senior religious leaders likeGrand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistanihave urged restraint to avoid drawing an Israeli military response directly onto Iraqi soil.
- Sunni and Kurdish Counterweights: Sunni Arab and Kurdish leaders generally oppose Iranian hegemony. The Kurdish region (IKR) remains a key partner for the U.S., while recent political shifts, such as electing a Sunni speaker of parliament, aim to create barriers against pro-Iranian policies.
- Minority Vulnerability: Religious minorities, particularly Christians, often view Iranian-backed influence as an existential threat to their sovereignty, as they are frequently caught in the crossfire of these larger geopolitical struggles.
