ICE is becoming America's dark side

I have lately heard several unrelated sources alluding to what many call the decline of the American Empire. 
We have a largely rentier economy, indifference to climate change and an exaggerated sense of superiority. And in many ways Donald Trump is the embodiment of our worst shortcomings. 
When I allow myself to think about it I worry for the next few generations.

These links are a small sample of how Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is contributing to that decline. 

ICE’s surveillance app is a techno-authoritarian nightmare

More than 170 U.S. Citizens Detained by ICE so far in 2025

Wisconsin’s tribal nations respond to ICE detainments of Native Americans, prepare for ICE in Wisconsin

Monday, February 2, 2026 – Native Americans are compelled to respond to indiscriminate ICE pressure

Tribal leaders say ICE is detaining American Indians during immigration sweeps

How a US Citizen Was Scanned With ICE’s Facial Recognition Tech

Judge rules ICE can continue enforcement in Minnesota

Sovereign wealth funds around the world holding US bonds

 

While there is no definitive public count of every individual sovereign wealth fund (SWF) holding U.S. bonds, governmental sources (which include SWFs, central banks, and other official institutions) collectively held approximately $3.8 trillion in U.S. federal debt as of May 2025. This represents about 44.2% of all foreign-owned U.S. debt. 

The United States remains a primary destination for state-owned capital, drawing 48% ($132 billion) of all global state-owned investments from SWFs and public pension funds in 2025. 

Major SWF Holders of U.S. Bonds

As of early 2026, several of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds have confirmed significant holdings in U.S. Treasury securities: 

• Norway (Government Pension Fund Global): The world's largest SWF held $199 billion in U.S. Treasuries as of December 31, 2025, an increase from $181 billion in mid-2025.
• China (China Investment Corporation): While China has been gradually reducing its overall debt holdings, it remains the third-largest foreign owner of U.S. debt with $682.6 billion in total Treasury holdings as of November 2025.
• Gulf Region (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait): These countries have pledged billions in U.S. investments through their powerful funds, such as the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF).
• Asia-Pacific: Major institutional investors from Japan, Singapore (GIC), and South Korea (KIC) continue to be anchor participants in the U.S. bond market. 

Top Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities (Nov 2025) 

Total foreign holdings reached an all-time peak of $9.355 trillion in November 2025. Note that these figures include both official (SWF/Central Bank) and private holdings. 

Rank	Country	Amount Held (Billions USD)
1	Japan	$1,202.6
2	United Kingdom	$888.5
3	China	$682.6
4	Belgium	$481.0
5	Canada	$472.2
6	Cayman Islands	$427.4
7	Luxembourg	$425.6

 

Key Trends for 2026

• Diversification vs. Stability: While some European investors, such as funds in 
  Sweden
   and 
  Denmark
  , have reportedly sold or trimmed U.S. Treasuries due to geopolitical concerns, the largest funds (like Norway's) have increased their positions to reflect the size and liquidity of the U.S. market.
• Rising State-Owned Assets: Global SWF assets crossed $15 trillion in December 2025, with state-owned investors now managing a total of $60 trillion across reserves and funds.
• New Funds: 11 new sovereign wealth funds were launched in 2025, all originating in emerging markets, potentially adding new institutional buyers to the global bond market in 2026. 

How much US bonds are held by other countries?

I do not understand macro-economics well enough to comment on this question, but my understanding is that the global economics system rests on the value of the US dollar. And that value rests on the stability and predictability of US bonds, which are essentially borrowed money which at some time in the future can be liquidated, much like a mortgage or an auto loan, both of which vanish when those arrangements are paid off. 
 --> It seems "domestic holdings have grown faster" than foreign "holdings" which indicates we are borrowing more from ourselves. 

As of early 2026, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities have reached an all-time high of approximately $9.4 trillion. This represents roughly 24% to 32% of the total outstanding U.S. federal debt. While the nominal amount of debt held by other countries has increased, the percentage of the total U.S. debt held by foreign entities has generally declined from a peak of nearly 50% in the early 2010s as domestic holdings have grown faster. 

Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities (Nov 2025) 

Key Insights

• Leading Holders: 
  Japan
   remains the largest single foreign holder of U.S. debt, with $1.202 trillion as of November 2025. The 
  United Kingdom
   follows as the second-largest holder at $888.5 billion.
• Chinese Divestment: 
  China
   has continued to reduce its holdings, which fell to $682.6 billion in late 2025, the lowest level for the country since 2008.
• European Influence: Collectively, European countries hold approximately $3.6 trillion, accounting for nearly 40% of all foreign-owned U.S. debt.
• Private vs. Official: Foreign holdings are split between official government/central bank accounts (44.2%) and private investors such as corporations and individuals (55.8%).
• Custodial Hubs: Countries like the 
  United Kingdom
  , 
  Belgium
  , and the 
  Cayman Islands
   often show high holdings because they act as major international banking and custody hubs for investors based in other nations. 

How is Iraq now governed?

With all the interest in Mideast government, politics and military significance I have wondered for some time why Iraq is rarely mentioned. America spent tons of lives and money waging war there, including that famous Green zone, the US military compound, one of the most heavily protected places anywhere. But over time for reasons never discussed, Iraq seems to have faded into obscurity. Why is that?

When I asked AI about that this is what I found...

Iraq

 is governed as a federal parliamentary representative democratic republic under a constitution ratified in 2005. The system is characterized by a power-sharing arrangement among the country's major ethnic and religious groups. 

Government Structure

• Legislative Branch: The Council of Representatives is the primary legislative body, consisting of 329 members elected every four years. A second chamber, the Federation Council, is constitutionally mandated but has not yet been fully established.
• Executive Branch:
  • President: Serves as the Head of State and is elected by a two-thirds majority of parliament. The role is largely ceremonial but symbolizes the sovereignty and unity of the state.
  • Prime Minister: The Head of Government and Commander-in-Chief. The President tasks the nominee from the largest parliamentary bloc to form a cabinet, which must then receive a vote of confidence from parliament.
• Judicial Branch: An independent branch comprising the Higher Judicial Council, the Federal Supreme Court, and the Court of Cassation. 

Informal Power-Sharing (Muhasasa)

Since 2003, Iraq has followed an informal "muhasasa" system to ensure representation and prevent conflict: 

• Prime Minister: Always a Shia Muslim.
• President: Always a Kurd.
• Speaker of Parliament: Always a Sunni Muslim. 

Regional and Local Governance

• Federalism: Iraq is divided into 19 governorates. The Kurdistan Region is the only semi-autonomous region recognized under the constitution, with its own parliament, president, and security forces (Peshmerga).
• Local Administration: Governorates have broad autonomy, though recent years have seen increased central government efforts to manage regional resources, particularly oil. 

Current Political Context (January 2026)

Following the November 2025 elections, Iraq is currently in a government formation phase. While Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s coalition won the most seats (46), he faces challenges for a second term from the Shia Coordination Framework, which includes factions pushing for other candidates, such as former PM Nouri al-Maliki. Until a new government is approved, the outgoing administration continues in a caretaker capacity

      When I asked what "Muhasasa" means this is what came back...

The muhasasa (Arabic for "apportionment" or "quotas") is an informal power-sharing system in Iraq that distributes political offices and state resources based on ethnic and sectarian identity. 

Introduced following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, it was intended to ensure proportional representation for Iraq's main groups—Shia Arabs, Sunni Arabs, and Kurds—to prevent any single group from dominating the others as had occurred under Saddam Hussein. 

Key Features of the System

• Ethno-Sectarian Division of Top Offices: By unwritten convention, the country's three highest leadership roles are always allocated as follows:
  • Prime Minister: A Shia Muslim.
  • President: A Kurd.
  • Speaker of Parliament: A Sunni Muslim.
• Points-Based Distribution: Parties earn "points" based on their performance in parliamentary elections. These points are then used as political capital to "buy" or negotiate for control of specific government ministries and thousands of senior civil service positions, known as "special grades".
• Vertical Patronage: Each party typically treats the ministries it controls as "spoils" of war. They use ministry budgets and payrolls to hire loyalists and provide jobs for their own sectarian or party constituents, rather than appointing individuals based on merit. 

Criticisms and Impact

While originally designed to foster stability, the muhasasa system is now widely blamed by the Iraqi public for the country's most persistent issues: 

• Systemic Corruption: Because ministries are divided among competing parties, there is little centralized accountability. Parties often collude to protect each other from corruption investigations to maintain the overall system.
• Institutional Weakness: The focus on sectarian quotas over professional qualifications has led to a bloated and inefficient civil service, often staffed by "ghost workers" who receive salaries without actually performing duties.
• Public Alienation: Massive protest movements, such as the Tishreen Movement in 2019, have explicitly called for the abolition of the muhasasa in favor of a "state of citizens" (mawatana) based on national identity rather than sect.

Something about that reminded me of something I read some time ago about how Lebanon was structured. This was in my notes soon after I began blogging about twenty years ago.

My own interest in the politics of the region began nearly a year and a half ago when I came across the word consociational in a post about Lebanon. I thought it was a typo, but learned upon investigation that it is descriptive of a hybrid strain of representative democracy which institutionalizes the interests of selected minority interests in the form of protected parliamentary seats. It seems to be a built-in safeguard against tyranny of the majority, but at the same time places a kind of cog in the gears that can hamper progress. I'm not a political scientist, but my instinct is that consociationalism is similar to the old county-unit system of the South which allowed rural interests to dominate rural interests in state legislatures until the "one man, one vote" principle was finally implemented by the courts.

This is all I care to write about Iraq this morning because I need to better formulate my thinking before going on.
I can't help comparing the governments of Lebanon and Iraq, wondering if both might be post-colonial divide-and-conquer models for how powerful countries control minority populations in other countries until over time they are subsumed into concentrations of power, thereby subjugating recalcitrant minorities into submission. 
That appears to be what is happening in Syria.
And all of these places -- Lebanon, Iraq and now Syria -- are case studies in how Israel has grown into a huge country beginning with a very small piece of acreage at the Mediterranean end of Palestine.