Is Iraq now in the Resistance?

 

While the Iraqi government officially maintains a policy of neutrality, Iraq is currently a central theater for the "Axis of Resistance"—an informal network of Iranian-backed groups. 

As of March 2026, the situation is defined by a "hybrid" state where powerful armed factions operate both within and outside the government's formal control. 

Current Status of the "Resistance" in Iraq

• The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI): This is an umbrella group of Shia militias (including Kata'ib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba) that is part of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance.
• Active Hostilities: These groups have significantly escalated attacks, claiming over 200 strikes on U.S. and Israeli interests since February 2026. On March 18, 2026, groups claimed dozens of drone and missile operations within a 24-hour period.
• State-Backed Paramilitaries: Many of these "resistance" fighters are also part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a state-sponsored organization that receives government funding while often following independent or Tehran-aligned agendas. 

The Government's Position

• Official Neutrality: Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani has repeatedly stated that Iraqi soil should not be a "staging ground" for regional conflicts.
• Lack of Control: Experts note the government struggles to curb the rise of these militias, as they have "one foot in the state and one foot out," making it difficult to enforce state authority over their military actions.
• U.S. Relations: Despite the militia activity, the U.S. Department of State still considers the official Iraqi government a key partner in regional stability. 

Summary of Alignment

Entity	Alignment	Status
Iraqi Government	Officially Neutral	Seeks to balance relations between the U.S. and Iran.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq	Pro-Iran / Anti-U.S.	Actively conducting drone and missile strikes against "enemy" bases.
Popular Mobilization Forces	Hybrid	State-funded but largely aligned with the "Axis of Resistance".

Did Trump relieve sanctions on Russia to enable Russian oil tankers to deliver to India?

 

Yes, as of March 2026, the 

Trump

 administration has temporarily eased sanctions to allow 

India

 to purchase Russian oil. This was achieved through a series of specific 30-day waivers intended to stabilize global energy markets during the ongoing conflict with Iran. 

Key Actions and Details

• India-Specific Waiver: On March 5, 2026, the U.S. Treasury issued a 30-day waiver specifically for India, allowing its refiners to buy Russian crude oil that was already loaded on tankers and "stranded at sea".
• Broader General License: Following the India-specific move, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a broader license on March 12, 2026, authorizing any country to purchase Russian oil loaded on vessels on or before March 12.
• Rationale: The administration stated these were "narrowly tailored, short-term measures" to prevent a global supply crunch and lower energy prices as conflict in the Middle East disrupted traditional shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
• Scope of Relief: The waiver specifically applies to oil already in transit (estimated at over 120 million barrels) and includes authorization for supporting activities like safe docking, insurance, and emergency repairs.
• Duration: These current exemptions are scheduled to remain in effect until April 11, 2026. 

Policy Context

• Previous Pressure: Prior to these waivers, the Trump administration had heavily pressured India to stop buying Russian oil, even imposing tariffs on Indian goods in 2025 to discourage the trade.
• Trade Agreements: In February 2026, India had reportedly agreed to reduce Russian oil imports in exchange for a trade deal with the U.S., but the energy crisis triggered by the Iran war forced a temporary reversal of this policy. 

MAP -- Where most of Africa lives

What tankers are now going thru the Strait of Hormuz?

 

As of March 12, 2026, the 

Strait of Hormuz

 is effectively closed to most commercial traffic following Iran's official declaration of closure in early March. While overall tanker transits have collapsed by approximately 92%, a small number of vessels continue to attempt the crossing, primarily those with ties to Iran, China, or the "shadow fleet". 

Vessels Currently Transiting or Recently Spotted 

Despite the near-total shutdown, the following tankers have been identified in or near the strait within the last 24–48 hours:

• Shenlong: A Liberia-flagged tanker carrying Saudi crude was recently permitted to pass through the strait toward Indian waters.
• Pushpak: A petroleum product tanker that departed an Iraqi port and successfully exited the Gulf on Thursday evening.
• Danuta I: A 225-meter natural gas carrier currently under U.S. sanctions, which crossed the strait at dawn on Friday.
• Cuma: A U.S.-sanctioned crude oil tanker that sailed from Iran earlier this week.
• Heilan Journey: A Chinese cargo ship recorded as transiting the strait on Wednesday morning.
• Kavomaleas: A tanker that moved through the strait under a partial Automatic Identification System (AIS) blackout between March 3 and March 4. 

Recent Attacks and Targeted Vessels

Several tankers that attempted transit or were in nearby waters have come under attack as Iran stepped up its targeting of non-authorized ships: 

• Safesea Vishnu: A Marshall Islands-flagged tanker owned by a U.S.-based group, set ablaze by explosive-laden boats during a ship-to-ship transfer in Iraqi waters.
• Zefyros: A Malta-flagged tanker attacked alongside the Safesea Vishnu while transferring fuel.
• Mayuree Naree: A Thai-flagged bulk carrier hit by a projectile 11 nautical miles north of Oman on Wednesday, causing a major engine room fire.
• Source Blessing: A Hapag-Lloyd chartered vessel struck by projectile shrapnel on Thursday morning. 

Transit Strategies and Conditions

• Shadow Fleet Dominance: Of the 13 large carriers that crossed between March 2 and March 9, eight were identified by Lloyd’s List Intelligence as "shadow fleet" vessels carrying sanctioned cargo from Iran, Russia, or Venezuela.
• "Going Dark": Many vessels have switched off their AIS transponders to perform "dark transits" and avoid detection.
• China-Linked Signaling: Multiple vessels are broadcasting messages like "CHINA OWNER" or "CHINA CREW" in their AIS data to signal neutrality and reduce the risk of being targeted.
• Vessels Stranded: More than 400 tankers remain anchored or stranded within the Persian Gulf as of late last week, unable to secure permission or insurance for safe transit.