Wednesday, January 22, 2020

What You Gonna Do, Mr. Trump, When Your Enemies Are Hunting You?

For future reference I'm keeping these reflections via a new Facebook buddy, Bill Gillaspie, which appeared in my Facebook timeline this morning.
This is an excerpt from a longer piece at War On The Rocks.


The fiery explosions from the recent U.S. drone attack that killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani have sent shock waves reverberating across the Middle East. Those same shocks should now be rippling through the American national security establishment too. The strike against the man widely considered the second-most powerful leader of a long-standing U.S. adversary was unprecedented, and its ultimate effects remain unknown. But regardless of what happens next, one thing is certain: The United States has now made it even more likely that American military and civilian leaders will be targeted by future U.S. foes. As a result, the United States will have to dramatically improve the ways in which it protects those leaders and rethink how it commands its forces on the battlefield.

Over the last 20 years, the United States has been able to target and kill specific individuals almost anywhere around the world, by matching an increasingly advanced array of precision weapons with a strikingly effective intelligence system. It has employed this capability frequently, especially across the greater Middle East, as it has sought to eliminate senior leaders of the Taliban insurgency or highly placed terrorists directing jihadist cells. And it has been able to pursue this decapitation strategy with impunity, because it has held a monopoly on this bespoke use of force. Not even the most powerful states could attempt the types of complex targeted strikes that the U.S. military and CIA conducted so routinely.

But U.S. adversaries were watching closely. As advanced technologies inexorably became cheaper and more widely available, the U.S. monopoly on these capabilities started to erode. By 2016, for example, eight countries other than the United States had conducted armed drone attacks, including Iran, Pakistan, and Nigeria. By 2019, Russia and two other countries joined this exclusive club. And at least one non-state actor has already used an armed drone for a targeted killing. According to one estimate, 27 other countries currently possess armed drones while dozens of states and non-state actors have unarmed drones. These capabilities can now be used against specific individuals even in the absence of large intelligence networks, thanks to the constant streams of personal information flowing from personal phones, fitness trackers, and other devices.

The Soleimani strike has given potential U.S. adversaries every reason to accelerate their efforts to develop similar capabilities. Moreover, these same adversaries can now justify their own future targeted killings by invoking this U.S. precedent. Sooner or later — and probably sooner — senior U.S. civilian and military leaders will become vulnerable to the same types of decapitation strikes that the United States has inflicted on others. Enemies will almost certainly attempt to target and kill U.S. officials during any future major war, and such attacks will likely become a part of future irregular conflicts as well. Though such strikes would dangerously escalate any conflict, committed adversaries of the United States may still find that the advantages outweigh the costs, especially if they can plausibly deny responsibility or if the strength of their resolve makes them willing to accept any resulting consequences.

Lessons of the Arab Spring

Alaa Al-Aswani is one of Egypt's leading public
 intellectuals. I transcribe his weekly columns
 at Deutsche Welle for future reference
.
Nine years have passed since the January revolution, which, according to historians ’testimony, is the greatest revolution in modern Egyptian history after the 1919 revolution

The January Revolution took place for bread, freedom, and human dignity, and despite the many attempts to distort the revolution, it remained alive in the hearts of the millions of Egyptians who made it, and in return, you will find those who hate and curse the January Revolution. The haters of the January revolution in Egypt are divided into the following types:


1. The sovereign citizen

This citizen is an officer in a sovereign authority (the army, police or intelligence) and he has grown up and knows that his position is much higher than that of civilian citizens. The sovereign has become accustomed to being above the law and has overwhelming influence over him at any moment. As soon as he enters anywhere and announces his personality, everyone will compete in his favor, even if it is at the expense of justice and law. With a phone call, he can harm anyone he does not like, and his mediation ensures that his children and relatives are appointed to the most important jobs even if they are not qualified for them. His high standing exempts him from the obligations that apply to the rest of the citizens. For example, he never pays traffic violations, and with his influence he can obtain loans from banks, lands at cheap prices, and facilities for payment.
He considers himself to be a master of the people and consequently he hates the revolution because it will take away his influence and make him just a state employee who is subject to the law like others.

2- The simplified citizen

This citizen has made a huge fortune that made him enjoy a delicious lavish life as he lives in a villa in an upscale neighborhood like Al-Tajmuah or Sheikh Zayed and he spends summer in a villa on the northern coast, and he may send his children to learn in the best western universities, and he, despite his wealth, has contracted with a skilled accountant who makes him pay taxes Few don't match his fortune. This citizen hates the revolution because it will lead to change, and he knows that any change in Egypt will harm him. The revolution will subject him to the law and compel him to pay the taxes due on him in full, and may hold him accountable for the sources of his wealth.

3- The corrupt citizen

With the spread of the corruption system in all parts of Egypt, the corrupt citizen who made his fortune from bribery and plundering public money appeared. This citizen naturally hates the revolution because it will definitely lead to his trial and the confiscation of his wealth and his imprisonment on charges of corruption.

4- The beneficiary citizen

This citizen is not directly corrupt, but he is a beneficiary of corruption. For example, he is a professor in the College of Medicine who uses his influence to appoint his children to return to college, despite their poor level of education. He is the businessman who uses his influence to obtain massive loans from banks with few guarantees and he is the influential person who can appoint his children in the best positions even if their qualifications are weak. He is an unemployed journalist for talent, but his cooperation with the intelligence granted him the position of editor-in-chief, who is the journalist who earns millions from his television program, which implements intelligence instructions, insults opponents of the regime and accuses them of treachery, while striving in the hypocrisy of President Sisi and praising his greatness and genius. The beneficiary citizen hates the revolution because it will seriously harm him and prevent him from the benefits he enjoys

5- The settled citizen

This citizen has long believed that it is useless to reform this country, and therefore his world is limited to his work and family. He does not read newspapers and does not follow the news on television, and he is often religious, but he is condemned as a procedural form that never pushes him to fight injustice and defend the truth while he is fond of football because - in addition to its enjoyment - he saturates his feeling of belonging in a safe way and also makes him enjoy justice while watching a match during which all players are subject to Transparent rules. Citizen, a stable citizen, does not see anything in the world except to eat his livelihood and the purpose of his life is to obtain a rewarding work contract in the Gulf in order to create a wealth in which he raises his children and teaches them the best education, then he gets to his son a work contract as well and gets his daughter a good groom to cover and make him happy. A stable citizen hates the revolution because it confuses his personal project and disrupts him. He considers the youth of the revolution a group of fools because he really does not understand why any person sacrifices his eating and endures imprisonment for vague, gelatinous meanings such as freedom, justice and dignity.

6 - The terrified citizen

This citizen possesses a real panic from the fall of Egypt in chaos or in the hands of Islamic extremists. He believes in the saying of jurists: "Sultan Ghoshum is better than sedition that lasts"
He repeats every day that Egypt has been protected by God because we have not become like Syria and Iraq. He hates the revolution and is terrified of the possibility of it occurring as if it were a natural disaster.
This assortment of revolution haters will be found around you everywhere as they accuse the revolution of all the accusations made by the intelligence media. There is absolutely no point in discussing with them because they hate the revolution with fanaticism and from within them not because of a wrong idea that can be corrected but rather they hate it as much as they love their interests and privileges.
The haters of the revolution are all supporters of Sisi, for nothing but because they believe that he will destroy the revolution and prevent its recurrence. They ignore torture, arrests, and all violations of the system, justify and applaud everything that Sisi says or does, that history teaches us that haters of the revolution are just like Sisi standing on the losing side of life because the revolution is not defeated and does not die and one day it will triumph because it belongs to the future and no one will ever be able to It prevents the future. .

Democracy is the solution

~~~

The self-immolation of a street vendor in 2011 set that January Revolution in motion. Ignited in part by social media it spread to Egypt and beyond, taking various forms along with a resurgence of Al Qaeda and the formation of ISIS and hitting serious resistance in Syria. A renewed outbreak of war in the region overshadowed the small gains of the revolution which included an end to the Mubarak era, followed by a brief exercise in Egyptian democracy. Since then the "revolution" has been undermined by yet another military dictatorship.

Monday, January 20, 2020

Prayer Against Abortion


I first published these notes in December, 2004.

That post was still coming up in searches in 2007 so I republished it again at my old blog. Now in 2020 I'm making this copy for readers who will not otherwise find it. Reading it again after all these years, I decided not to change anything. Prayers in the form of poetry composed in antiquity are cited here and this line in the second poem jumped out at me.
Why strip the vine of grapes just as it starts to climb,
Not even drinking wine before its time?
Pagans wrote some pretty good poetry, no?
~~~
Here, enshrined in a poem by Ovid, is an eloquent anti-abortion pagan prayer. The link I found to notes and commentary no longer works, but here is what I found.
[i]n the background are the Augustan social reforms which were designed to encourage marriage and discourage childlessness. Augustus imposed penalties on those who failed to marry or who married but remained childless. From this fact and from references to abortion in the literature (usually denouncing it), the frequent occurrence of abortion in imperial Rome can be inferred. Legislative opposition to abortion (which came later) was based on the father's right to heirs and complemented by philosophical arguments based on "nature." It is this assumption of the male prerogative which motivates these poems and which characterizes their speaker. In another body of legislation, Augustus attempted to revive old Roman religious practices. These efforts entailed the suppression of eastern religions, specifically including the Egyptian worship of Isis and Sarapis. In this regard too, when the speaker prays to Isis and Ilithyia, goddess of childbirth, that Corinna survive the ordeal of her recent abortion, he appears relatively indifferent to Augustus's moral project.
In other words, the objection to abortion here is based mainly upon a male's right to an an heir, not any kind of moral objection. It's tempting to ascribe modern values to historic records but values do change over time, hopefully but not always for the better. The same people who composed the Declaration of Independence and crafted the US Constitution, including both Washington and Jefferson, were permitted to own slaves, and the notion that women should vote didn't become legal until the Twentieth Century.
For trying to unseat the burden crouched in her swelling womb, for her audacity, Corinna lies near death.
I should be furious: to take such a risk! And without telling me! But anger fails me -- I'm so afraid. You see, I'm the one who got her that way, or so I believe; I might as well be, since I could have been. 
Isis! Great queen of Paraetonium, of Canopus' joyful plains, of Memphis, and of Pharos, rich in palm-trees, of the broad delta where the swift Nile spreads, and pours his waters to the sea through seven mouths, I pray, by your sacred rattles, by the venerated face of Anubis -- may faithful Osiris forever love your rites! may the unhurried snake glide always amid your offerings, and horned Apis travel at your side! -- come here, look kindly upon her, and save two lives in one: for you'll give life to her, and she to me. 
She's been devout: performed each service on your festival days, observed the Gallic laurel ritual.
And you, who comfort laboring women in their time of distress, when the lurking burden strains their bodies hard, come gently now, and smile upon my prayers, Ilithyia -- she's worthy of your intervention -- please!
I myself, in white robes, will bring incense to your smoking altar I myself will offer votive gifts and lay them at your feet with the inscription, 'For Corinna's Life.' Goddess, give occasion for those words! 
Corinna, listen, if you're out of danger: please don't ever go through this again!
I am not any scholar of ancient literature. But I do a lot of reading. The link I found is now gone but here is a bit of background to Ovid:
Ovid was born into a well-to-do equestrian family on March 20, 43 B.C.E. in Sulmo, a town in the Apennines, about eighty miles from Rome. This was the year after Julius Caesar was assassinated; almost a year before Cicero was murdered; and twelve years before the battle of Actium brought an end to the civil war between Antony and Octavian. At about the time of Actium, Ovid, like others from his class, was sent to Rome for an education in rhetoric and law....
His poetry is generally noted for its ease and wit; sometimes faulted for its rhetorical self-indulgence. He has less interest in politics per se than any other poet in this volume which is not to say that his urban sophistication, irreverence, and even mockery of old-fashioned Roman values did not have political consequences...he writes in the first person of his love for a woman, called Corinna...
In this case I have to give credit (again) to First Things, which is to say Fr. Neuhaus. Plowing through last month's retrospective of a book published by Neuhaus twenty years ago, I came to the end, where I found the following poem.
What Good Is It That Girls/ Need Never Go To War?
What good is it that girls need never go to war
Or wear a shield or march in columns or
Bow down to Mars, if they take out a bloody knife
And blind the womb that bears a fated life?
The first who ever tried to cut away her child
Deserved to die for what she had defiled.
How could it be that stretch marks make for such disgust
That you become like killers palled in dust?
Had mankind's mothers been so selfish, mean, and base,
There never would have been a human race,
And we'd have needed, one more time, some pair to throw
Pebbles behind them, so mankind might grow.
Who would have ruined Priam if the mother of
Achilles hadn't borne her child with love?
If Ilia hadn't given Romulus his birth,
How could eternal Rome have ruled the earth?
Had Venus ripped Aeneas from her, such a deed
Would orphan us of Caesars in our need.
You, too, Corinna, born so pretty: you'd have died
If your mother had done what you just tried.
And me! (Though I'll die from romantic love's excess.)
My mother gave me life by saying yes.
Why strip the vine of grapes just as it starts to climb,
Not even drinking wine before its time?
Ripe fruit drops on its own; better a life that's late
Than death! So great a prize, so brief a wait!
And yet your weapons go on gouging out the wombs
That poisons make your children's early tombs.
We hate Medea for the blood she's splattered with -
Her babes' - and grieve for Itys in the myth.
Child killers that they were, at least they had some cause,
Ruining their men by blood that broke all laws.
Where is your Tereus? Where's the Jason who demands
You pierce your innards with a mother's hands?
Armenian tigresses won't do what women will;
No lioness will see her cub and kill,
Though girls of nineteen do - but not without a price
(Abortion doubles human sacrifice).
Then she is borne away to burn, her hair undone,
To cries of "serves her right!" from everyone.
But let my words dissolve, and heaven blow away
The awful burden of these things I say.
Dear gods, allow her - once - to sin and still survive;
Two sins, and she need not be kept alive. 
Ovid's Amores 2.14, translated by Len Krisak
Look at that. "...cries of 'serves her right' from everyone..."Doesn't that sound contemporary? I have said it before and it is worth repeating: nothing animates a human being more surely or more quickly that righteous indignation. It is the seminal impulse driving every human conflict, from family feuds and road rage to ethnic cleansing and war itself.

It is worth repeating, too (as noted above), that Ovid's objections do not derive from moral beliefs. As Christians we stand upon moral ground. But when we speak to a non-Christian world, as did Paul in Athens, it is wise to remember that Christian objections carry little weight to the unconverted. It is easier to grasp the notion, however, that even pagans suspected there was something objectionable about abortion.
/end

My notes from 2004 ended there. I'm making this updated copy as Donald Trump enters the third year of his presidency, facing impeachment, and the country is as almost as divided now as I remember it was during the Vietnam and civil rights conflicts. After watching a bit of a sermon by Andy Stanley which seemed to be an attempt to help his congregation overcome political conflicts that seem to threaten religious values I realized again that the core challenge is more about beliefs than behavior. But unless and until beliefs are overcome, behavior must somehow be kept under control. 

Even as I write, state officials in Virginia and U.S. hate-monitoring groups are warning about the potential for violence ahead of a gun-rights rally expected to draw a mix of militias, firearms advocates and white supremacists to Richmond. 
Citing credible threats of violence, Gov. Ralph Northam declared a temporary state of emergency days ahead of Monday’s rally, banning all weapons, including guns, from Capitol Square. Virginia's solicitor general last week said law enforcement had identified "credible evidence" armed out-of-state groups planned to come to Virginia with the possible intention of participating in a “violent insurrection.” 
Online, threats of violence have been “rampant” among anti-government and far-right groups, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center, which tracks white supremacists and other extremists. Conspiracy theories and other misinformation have also proliferated. 
Organizers of an annual vigil at the Capitol for the victims of gun violence said Friday they have canceled their event this year because of fears of ”armed insurrectionists." Meanwhile, the gun-rights group that has planned the event is urging peace.
Credible information obtained by authorities indicates several known organized groups are expected to participate, including
•  Virginia Citizens Defense League
•  Gun Owners of America
•  Oath Keepers
•  Three Percenter Movement
•  White supremacists

So how does any of this relate to the question of abortion? Quick answer, it doesn't. Abortion is but one of several hot-button issues driving extreme actions triggered by extreme beliefs. The abortion question illustrates how conflicts become extreme at the intersection of beliefs and behaviors. The early days of the abortion arguments involved both murders of physicians and bombings of facilities providing abortions, despite the fact that after lengthy legal battles the right to abortion was finally enshrined into law. Even now that conflict remains contentious, despite the fact that the number of abortions has been declining for years. 

Likewise, gun violence continues to surge in America, thanks again to the belief on the part of many that the Second Amendment to the Constitution means any and all firearms restrictions are a slippery slope to tyranny. As a lifetime liberal this is not the first time I have encountered yet another belief vs behavior conflict and it won't be the last. But having been reared Christian it grieves me to see so many of my fellow Christians led to extremes by political leaders and media-savvy evangelists who appear more interested in power and money than the values I believe are foundational to the faith. 

Friday, January 17, 2020

Domestic Terrorism Notes.

These three self-explanatory links are copied here for my record.
First is from Reuters. Thanks to Khalid Diab whom I follow via Twitter, whose Washington Post article also appears below.


Alleged neo-Nazis caught with assault rifle charged ahead of Virginia gun rally

Julia Harte

GREENBELT, Md. (Reuters) - Three suspected members of a neo-Nazi group appeared in a Maryland court on Thursday to face federal charges after the FBI arrested them for carrying an assault rifle and planning to incite violence at a gun-rights rally in Virginia.

Earlier on Thursday, the FBI arrested the trio: Brian Lemley, 33, a former cavalry scout in the U.S. Army; Patrik Mathews, 27, a combat engineer in the Canadian Army Reserve who authorities said had illegally entered the United States; and William Bilbrough, a teenager who prosecutors called a serious flight risk, saying he expressed a desire to fight with Ukrainian nationalists.

Their appearance in the U.S. District Court in Greenbelt, Maryland, came the day after Virginia Governor Ralph Northam declared a state of emergency banning any weapons around the grounds of the state capitol in Richmond.

He said investigators had seen groups making threats of violence ahead of the gun-rights rally planned at the legislative building for Monday.

Federal prosecutors said the three suspects were members of the neo-Nazi group The Base, a small militant organization dedicated to committing violence against minorities and obstructing authorities from learning about their activities. When Lemley and Mathews were arrested, they smashed their cellphones and dumped them into the toilet before submitting to federal agents, Assistant U.S. Attorney Thomas Windom said.

Standing calmly before Judge Charles Day, Lemley wore a T-shirt and pajama pants, while Mathews sported camouflage pants and a bushy blond beard.

Both men answered “yes” when the judge asked if they understood the charges against them, which include transporting a firearm with intent to commit an offense. They answered “no” when asked if they were under the influence of drugs or alcohol.

Bilbrough, redheaded and wearing glasses, listened as prosecutors read the charges against him, including transporting and harboring aliens. He smiled several times as prosecutors described his alleged activity with the Base.

Lemley and Mathews remained in federal custody due to their alleged firearms violations. The judge decided to detain Bilbrough after prosecutors said the 19-year-old defendant might go into hiding or try to flee the country since he had repeatedly expressed a desire to travel to Ukraine to fight with “nationalists” there.

Bilbrough’s defense attorney denied that his client posed a flight risk, noting that he lived with his grandmother and lacked a passport.

The judge set the three defendants’ detention hearings for Wednesday.

The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security have been sharply criticized for not focusing enough on the threat of far-right extremism following a spate of attacks on synagogues and a 2017 white-supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. Heads of both of those agencies have said in recent months that they were taking the threat more seriously.

Several thousand gun rights supporters are planning a large rally in Richmond, Virginia’s capital, on Monday in response to the newly Democratic-controlled state legislature’s push to stiffen gun laws.

Virginia, where Democrats took control of the legislature by promising stronger gun laws, has become the latest focal point for the contentious American debate around the right to bear arms. Many gun-rights groups contend the U.S. Constitution guarantees their ability to possess any firearm. Those opposed say gun laws would help lessen the number of people killed by guns each year.

The three men are accused of interstate commerce of weapons, harboring illegal aliens, an alien in possession of a firearm and ammunition, and aiding and abetting. The FBI also said in the court filing that the men had attempted to manufacture DMT, a powerful psychedelic that is an illegal drug under federal law.

While federal authorities can bring criminal terrorism charges against those suspected of working on behalf of foreign extremist groups like al Qaeda, they lack those tools when pursuing affiliates of domestic extremist groups, whose views are protected by the free-speech clause of the U.S. Constitution.

The men were in possession of what looked like a fully automatic rifle, according to an FBI agent who watched the men fire the weapon at a gun range.

Shortly after firing the weapon on Jan. 2 at a Maryland gun range, Lemley told Mathews, “Oh, oops, it looks like I accidentally made a machine gun,” according to the court document.

Lemley and Mathews lived together in Delaware, while Bilbrough resided in Maryland. Mathews illegally crossed over the border into the United States in August, the court document said.

Reporting by Julia Harte in Greenbelt, Maryland, Brad Brooks in Austin, Texas, Mark Hosenball and Andy Sullivan in Washington and Gabriella Borter in New York; Editing by Scott Malone, Jonathan Oatis and Tom Brown
Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.



Of crusaders and jihadis

 Khaled Diab

Despite their conviction that they are polar opposites, white supremacists and Islamist extremists share much in common, including a hatred of minorities and the enemies within, a persecution complex, and nostalgia for past glories.

Monday 25 March 2019
If a terrorist were to claim that their attack was intended to “add momentum to the pendulum swings of history, further destabilising and polarising Western society,” you might be excused in thinking the perpetrator was an Islamic extremist. But these are the words of a white supremacist and crusader.

In the confused and contradictory manifesto reportedly penned by Brenton Tarrant, the 28-year-old Australian white supremacist who stands accused of perpetrating the deadly mosque shootings in Christchurch, New Zealand, the self-described terrorist asserts grandiosely that his killing spree sought to “incite violence, retaliation and further divide between the European people and the invaders currently occupying European soil,” even though the attack was carried out about as far away from European soil as it is possible to get in the inhabited corners of the world.

Tarrant also wrote that he hoped that his actions would “Balkanise” the United States “along political, cultural and, most importantly, racial lines”. This would, in his twisted vision, hasten the destruction of the current order and enable the creation of a white, Christian utopia on the smouldering ruins of multiculturalism.

The Australian extremist’s nihilistic fantasy of revolutionary change from within echoes that of many jihadis and Islamist extremists. For example, combating the “near enemy,” i.e., the enemy within, is a central pillar of the ideology and political programme of the Islamic State (ISIS) and partly explains why fellow Muslims were the largest target, in numerical terms, as well as indigenous minorities, of the self-proclaimed caliphate’s murderous rage.

These two hateful ideologies — white supremacy and radical Islamism — may regard themselves as polar opposites, but their worldviews resemble one another more than they differ. Both are paranoid, exhibit a toxic blend of superiority and inferiority towards the other, are scornful of less extreme members of their own communities and are nostalgic for an imagined past of cultural dominance.

Islamists are often in the habit of vilifying their secular, liberal and progressive compatriots and co-religionists as culturally inauthentic mimics and fakes, at best, and as sellouts and traitors, at worst. “The enemies of Islam can deceive Muslim intellectuals and draw a thick veil over the eyes of the zealous by depicting Islam as defective in various aspects of doctrine, ritual observance, and morality,” railed Hassan al-Banna, the founding father of the Muslim Brotherhood, in 1936.

This conviction that local liberal elites are aiding and abetting the enemy by betraying their own culture and people is also a common refrain amongst white supremacists, neo-Nazis and the Alt-Right. Such a belief is the root of Tarrant’s absurd assertion that “NGOs are directly involved in the genocide of the European people.”

It also highlights why the Norwegian terrorist Anders Breivik — whom Tarrant wrote that he admired — chose to attack the “near enemy” by murdering participants at a Workers’ Youth League Summer Camp, people he vilified as “cultural Marxists,” instead of the more obvious target of Muslims or other minority groups whom he also hated. (A watered-down version of this discourse is becoming popular in more mainstream right-wing and conservative circles, as epitomised in the growing demonisation of leftists, intellectuals, academics and journalists, whom President Trump regularly and dangerously brands as the “enemies of the people.”)

A contempt for “Western” modernity is another trait shared by Islamists and the Christian far right. “The Europeans worked assiduously in trying to immerse (the world) in materialism, with their corrupting traits and murderous germs, to overwhelm those Muslim lands that their hands stretched out to,” believed al-Banna. Unintentionally echoing the founding father of political Islam, Tarrant is convinced that the West has become a “society of rampant nihilism, consumerism and individualism.”

This disdain for many aspects of modernity translates into an overwhelming yearning for a supposedly more glorious and pure past and a nostalgia for bygone imperial greatness when the world was at their command — for the days of European empires or Islamic caliphates.

In his manifesto, Tarrant oozes victimhood, equating the perceived erosion of privilege with oppression, rather like Islamists in some Muslim-majority countries who regard any concessions to minorities or women as a sign of their own supposed repression. He appropriates the language of occupation, anti-colonialism and the oppressed, despite living in a society founded by European settlers.

Although Tarrant claims to be undecided about whether he is a Christian, he couches his manifesto in Christian imagery and justifies his crimes in religious terms, like his jihadi equivalents. Not only does he quote Pope Urban II, who initiated the First Crusade, but the attacker warns that: “We are coming for Constantinople and we will destroy every mosque and minaret in the city.”

Tarrant claimed that his actions were motivated by the urgent need to avert a supposed “white genocide,” a popular myth in far-right circles which maintains, absurdly, that there is a conspiracy in motion to kill off the white race. Outlandish conspiracy theories are common fodder in both far-right and Islamist circles, including anti-Semitic tropes about the world being controlled by a cabal of secretive, wealthy Jews.

The appropriation of the anti-colonial language of the oppressed shows how white supremacy has developed an inferiority complex since its peak in the 19th century, when the West pretty much ruled the rest. In place of the white man’s burden of yore, many on the far right now feel they are regarded as the burden.

This claim of resisting foreign occupation and oppression is a common refrain in contemporary white nationalist circles. Despite claiming that whites were the “the pioneers of the world,” Richard Spencer, the poster boy of the Alt-Right movement, lamented — in the notorious Washington speech during which he made a Nazi salute — that “no one mourns the great crimes committed against us. For us, it is conquer or die.”

“We are experiencing an invasion on a level never seen before in history,” Tarrant asserted dubiously in his manifesto, even though his victims were worshippers at a mosque, not an army massing at the border. “This crisis of mass immigration and sub-replacement fertility is an assault on the European people that, if not combated, will ultimately result in the complete racial and cultural replacement of the European people.”

“[There] are no innocents in an invasion, all those who colonise other people’s lands share guilt,” the Australian terrorist claimed. In this, he echoed Osama bin Laden, who described 9/11 as an act of “self-defense,” declaring that “if killing those who kill our sons is terrorism, then let history be witness that we are terrorists.”

Extremists may believe in a monumental battle between the Christian West and Islam, but the reality is the cross-border conflicts in this world are predominantly clashes of interests, not of ideologies.

There are, however, ideological clashes within our individual countries and “civilisations” — between pluralists and progressives, on the one side, and puritans and fanatics, on the other.

If the extremists prevail, they will rent apart their own societies supposedly to protect them against the perceived enemies from within and without. We must use all the social, economic, political and intellectual tools at our disposal to avert such a catastrophe.

This article was first published by The Washington Post on 16 March 2019.

Who is U.S. neo-Nazi group 'The Base'?

(Reuters) - The FBI has arrested three suspected members of an armed neo-Nazi group known as The Base that hopes to start a race war in the United States, officials said on Thursday.

The arrests came just days before a gun-rights rally in Virginia that was expected to draw thousands of people.

Here is how the Counter Extremism Project (CEP), a non-profit, non-partisan organization that tracks extremist groups, and the Anti-Defamation League, characterize the group:

- The Base is an “accelerationist group that encourages the onset (of) anarchy and so it can then ‘impose order from chaos.’” The CEP says The Base seeks to train members to fight a race war and draws inspiration from the book “Siege” by the neo-Nazi James Mason.

- The Base was launched by Norman Spear, also known as Roman Wolf, in 2018. The CEP said both names are believed to be pseudonyms. The Base’s members portray themselves as vigilante soldiers defending the “European race” from a broken “system” infected by Jewish values, according to the Anti-Defamation League.

- The Base has organized training camps around North America on weaponry and military tactics and distributed manuals for “lone-wolf terror attacks, bomb-making, counter-surveillance and guerrilla warfare.”

- “The Base,” is the English translation of al Qaeda, although it is not clear if that was intentional and if there are other similarities between the two.

- The network is also present in Europe and Australia, CEP said. Although members mainly organize online, it’s real-world presence has increased, the Anti-Defamation League said.

Reporting by Maria Caspani and Mark Hosenball, Editing by Frank McGurty and Cynthia Osterman



Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Donald Trump’s Presidency and False Prophecy

This guest editorial by Christian historian William De Arteaga, copied here for easier access & reading, appeared January 14 in The Pneuma Review, a Journal of Ministry Resources and Theology for Pentecostal and Charismatic Ministries & Leaders.
It is heavily documented with 29 end-notes which I have not transcribed. The original link is ten screens long, all of which take a very long time to download.
Those who know me may be surprised to find this content at my blog, but Bill and I have been friends more than two decades and despite whatever differences we may have we remain close friends. 


Recently, the Mark Galli’s op-ed piece in Christianity Today created uproar among Evangelical Christians.[1] He asserted that President Trump should be removed from office for his lack of moral character. Many Christians were offended, but many others affirmed his view as theirs. It seems clear that most Evangelicals understand that Trump is a deeply flawed and a personally immoral person. The divide then is between those who find this to be disqualifying for the office of President, as the Rev. Galli, and those to whom Trump’s immorality is lamentable, but not important as President. This latter group strongly believes that Trump has been called by God to be President in spite of his character flaws. For his defense, the “Forever Trump” Christians cite his pro-family and pro-Christian tilt in the White House, and especially his court nominations, Supreme Court and lower courts, and his across-the-board support of Israel as indicators that this is true.

When criticism is given about Trump’s behavior, as in his shameless boasting,[2] lying or insulting tweets, the Forever Trumpers often cite that biblical heroes, men and women called by God, were often imperfect, or had some deep areas of immorality. For instance, Samson could not resist pagan women and destroyed the fullness of his ministry with this sin but still carried out much of God’s call on his life.

To be transparent, I side with the Rev. Galli’s opinion.[3] Galli commented the following week that the mass of email and letters disagreeing with his op-ed followed this line of thought, and refused to argue or discuss the specifics of Trump’s immoral or arbitrary acts.[4] Like Galli, I too have found that the Forever Trumpers most often do not bother to defend Trump’s action or irrational tweets, but rather cite the biblical injection, “do no touch my anointed” (1 Chr 16:18).

The acceptance of this disjunction between Trump’s personal morality and intemperate, rude, uncharitable tweets, etc. and his support by most white Evangelical Christians[5] is due in part to a series of prophecies, by a previously unknown prophet, Mark Taylor, which were assisted by Mary Colbert, an influential Christian writer and editor. This prophetic message and a belief that Trump was especially called out by God has been reinforced among Charismatic Christians by Mr. Steve Strang, CEO and President of Strang Communications, which publishes charismatic books and the influential Charisma magazine.[6]

In this essay I want to look the issue of prophecy, especially the discernment of prophecy from biblical viewpoint and from the expedience of the Church over the ages. I will be taking into account various instances of false prophecy that have cropped up throughout Church history. Were the prophecies that propelled Trump to the Presidency true prophetic messages from God, or false prophecies to divide and undermine the moral standing of the Evangelical and Charismatic community, or something in between?

False prophecy is common in Church history, and most often involves very good Christians and communities who misinterpret or exaggerate God’s direction. Paul is careful to encourage prophecy in New Testament Church and recommend it to Christians as the most important gift of the Spirit (1 Cor 14:1). But Paul put discernment boundaries around it, as in having the prophet submit their visions and prophecies to the church for discernment. It is also clear that Paul in 1 Corinthians principally refers to prophecies that uplift and correct at the local church (1 Cor 14:3), not global, trans-church issues.

Two or three prophets should speak, and the others should weigh carefully what is said. And if a revelation comes to someone who is sitting down, the first speaker should stop. For you can all prophesy in turn so that everyone may be instructed and encouraged (1 Cor: 29-31).

But that does not necessarily exclude prophecy about national or international issues, In Act 11:28 the prophet Agabus prophesied that there would be a large scale famine, and the Church had to prepare for it. It happened. Similar valid prophecies have occurred throughout Church history. For Instance, Demos Shekarian, the founder to the Full Gospel Businessmen Fellowship International, recounts how his family immigrated to California from Armenia due to warnings in the early 1900s by a local prophet. That prophet warned that the Armenians must leave to avoid slaughter. Some, including his parents, heeded the warning and escaped the Armenian genocide by the Turks of 1915-1916.[7]

The discernment of prophecy is both a grace and a matter of experience. That is, having a discerning community that both cherishes prophecy as possibly direct words from God, but is aware of the danger of false prophecy. I have treated elsewhere the difficulty of practicing prophecy and having a church that is at ease with the gift. Even Pentecostal pastors are often unsure how to allow and correct spontaneous prophesies in their congregations.[8]

The consensus of the discernment literature—Catholic, Protestant, and Pentecostal—is that, especially in the local church, short prophetic utterances can be of the Holy Spirit, (all must be discerned) but as they get longer they tend to bring in elements of the prophets’ subconscious wishes, prejudices and preferences.[9] So accepting the long and long-range prophecies about Trump should be especially cautious.

But before I proceed further, let me cite from Christian history some false prophecies that influenced the Church to its determent.

A major false prophetic movement was begun by a prophet call Montanus, about the year 170 A.D. His prophesies, and that of two women prophetesses who aided him, spread in the Roman Empire during a period of severe persecution.[10] Montanus and his prophets predicted the very soon coming of Jesus, and predicted that a “New Jerusalem” would descend from heaven and alight in their home town of Pepuza – a sleepy one-horse, or one-chariot village in the mountains of Phrygia (modern Turkey). That his hometown would be the center of the Second Coming is an example of the provincialism and vanity that often seeps into false prophecy. This may be part of what Paul refers to as “itching ears” in 2 Tim 4:3.

Montanist prophets caused divisiveness and the real conflict with the majority of churches and their bishops through the prophets’ moral rigor and legalism. They claimed, through repeated prophetic utterances, that the Holy Spirit decreed that those who had broken under Roman torture and renounced the Christian faith could never be accepted back into the Church. The Montanists claimed that these had committed the “unforgivable sin.” Most of the bishops of the Church disagreed, and saw a need for leniency, including restoration of these persons into the Church after a penitential period.

The orthodox bishops came out of this conflict as defenders of the true Gospel of mercy. In the process, the prophetic ministry was put under suspicion. Sadly, the bishops began to appropriate the prophetic office into their ordained office, and away from 1 Cor 14 as Paul indicated, by interpreting the meaning of prophecy as the preaching and teaching ministry of the Church. This is an idea that the Reformers were to adopt as standard.[11] The effect was that prophecy, instead of being what Paul suggested, the most common gift for the Christian community (1 Cor. 14), became an increasingly rare gift.[12]

After a while the Montanists prophets declared that the “prophetic age” (their own) was over and the movement settled down as a legalistic sect – and eventually petered out. But the Montanist movement extended negative consequences throughout Christian history. It vastly curtailed (but did not totally end) the frequency of spontaneous lay prophetic utterances. Instead of a flow of prophetic utterances in normal parish life, a vacuum of ongoing (and necessary) practice of discerning prophecy was created by church elders and leaders. That is, there were few, and scattered, living persons experienced in the gift of prophecy in their churches or could exercise discernment and cautious prudence.

Later on, the Catholic Church developed the concept of “spiritual direction” in which a mature person, usually an ordained cleric, would act as the discernment person to mystics, nuns and others who experienced visions and prophecies. But this was a very specialized and limited ministry.[13] The Reformation rejected this tradition and the excellent literature on discernment that it generated, and saw prophecy, as the other gifts of the Spirit, restricted to the Apostolic Age (the doctrine of cessationism).

In the revivals among the Protestant Churches that occurred from the 1600s, where the gifts of the Spirit were newly discovered by one community or another, lack of discernment on prophecy and experience in discerning prophecies, was a constant problem. This lack often discredited many of the revival movements of the Church. This was the principal reason why the Great Awakening (1737-1742) of New England was cut short. Specifically, there arose traveling prophets who put forth false prophecies and presumptuous judgments about other ministers and churches. The American theological genius, Jonathan Edwards, witnessed this discernment failure first hand and single-handedly created Protestantism’s best discernment works in response.[14]

In more modern times, before the Azusa Street revival and the birth of modern Pentecostalism, there was a revival that took place among several Holiness congregations in Corsicana County, Texas, in the 1870s. This revival began with a burst of worship and enthusiasm which included tongues. Significantly, the local leadership understood that the gifts of the Spirit described in 1 Cor. 12 -14 were for the present. Unfortunately the leaders were inexperienced in prophecy and its discernment (of course, there were no mentors or literature to help them) and drifted into false prophecy.

Some prophetic utterances included the message that a person baptized with the Spirit would be regenerated physically to the point of being able to live a thousand years. But strangely enough, some in the congregation continued dying. The revival disintegrated as local prophets urged their followers to sell all and await Jesus’ return in 1875. Jesus didn’t make it, and the only thing achieved by the revival was the discrediting of future Pentecostal efforts in the area four decades later as the people remembered the previous fiasco[15].

The Prophesies of David Wilkerson

In the Twentieth Century there was the very interesting case of David Wilkerson’s 1973 false prophecy. The Rev. Wilkerson was truly one of the heroes and pioneers of the Charismatic Renewal. He began as a small town preacher (Assemblies of God) in the coalfields of Pennsylvania. Through a series of promptings from the Holy Spirit, he went to New York and was led to minister to delinquent teenagers in the slums of New York City. This eventually led to a marvelous and effective ministry in New York and other cities for the evangelization and rehabilitation of inner-city teenagers called Teen Challenge. The story of the beginnings of this ministry is told in his book, The Cross and the Switchblade.[16] That book had a special anointing in its power to inspire people and was translated into many languages and sold more than 50,000,000 copies worldwide.

But in April 1973, when Wilkerson was already known worldwide for his teen ministry and first book, he received a series of visions. They were prophetic visions and dealt with the supposed coming events of the next decade (1973-1983), with special attention to the happenings in the United States. It was published as The Vision, and became a best seller among Evangelicals and Charismatics.[17] Wilkerson first publicly proclaimed the vision in a conference of Lutheran Charismatics in August of 1973. The tape of that session is an amazing document in the history of Christian false prophecy.[18]

Although the book contains all the prophecies, one can best appreciate Wilkerson’s state of mind by listening to the tape. As he spoke at the Lutheran assembly he asserted time after time that his message was directly from God, and that it was the “clearest vision I’ve ever had.” He assured the audience that the Spirit behind the vision was the same that guided him to the teen ministry. Several times during his delivery he was practically overwhelmed by emotion and said, “Never have I felt such an anointing,” or “I predict in the Spirit!” and so on.[19] Wilkerson warned of five major calamities that were surely coming on the world by 1983. In economics, the “next few years” would be prosperous (he missed the recession of 1974-1975), followed by a deep depression brought about by financial collapse. The depression was to start in Germany and the Arab countries would suffer the most – but none of that happened. At the same time, there would be severe earthquakes in the United States and worldwide food shortages. That also did not happen, but was scary to those who heard the prophecy. On the moral front, the United States was to be invaded by a flood of pornography never before seen, and the courts would take an even more permissive stand on this issue (sort of true, but one did not need to be a prophet to see the trend already apparent). There would also be a major wave of disobedience by children towards their parent (a constant, but no noticeable jump in this sin area).

The most important and dramatic part of the vision pertained to the churches. According to Wilkerson, there would arise a new Church, really the Church of the anti-Christ, made of a liberal Protestant and Roman Catholic amalgam, in which the Pope would be recognized as the political head. The “true” Church of God, a new union of all authentic Spirit-filled Christians, would of course oppose this Church and in turn suffer persecution.

Wilkerson especially warned Catholic Charismatics to expect persecution from their own hierarchy, that they would eventually be forced to choose between their Catholicism and the Spirit-filled life. As a practical measure, he warned all Christian churches to put their financial houses in order so as to weather the coming hard times. Specifically, no new buildings or borrowing should be initiated in the immediate future. All through the delivery of this prophecy, Wilkerson provided ample biblical quotations to give it a sense of biblical validation.

That The Vision was a false prophecy is obvious. Was it merely a subconscious concoction of the beliefs, fears and prejudices of a small-town preacher raised in a tradition that believed the Catholic Church was the “whore of Babylon?” Certain elements in the prophecy suggest that they may have had a deeper, demonic influence. The very shrillness and lack of humility in his assertions was itself a sign of that. The prophecy did not call Christians to prayer or repentance, nor did it console, edify, or exhort; it frightened and condemned. There was not a single suggestion that might have been remotely useful, such as might have prepared Christians for the energy crisis of 1975 when Saudi Arabia stopped oil exports to the USA to protest our support of Israel.

Further, the only practical suggestions were destructive. The separation of Spirit-filled Christians into “one true Church” would have resulted in a new Montanism with results perhaps as destructive to the Church as the old Montanism. Even the minor point of financial conservatism had a source that was not from the Holy Spirit, for many churches in the 1970s did in fact continue to flourish and expand and to build in response to their growing needs. In my own city, Atlanta, several large charismatic churches arose, borrowed some money for construction, grew tremendously and repaid their debts.

That the Catholic Charismatic movement did not follow the deadly advice of The Vision was due in great part to the intelligent and quick response of other, more mature leaders. David du Plessis, the elder statesman of Pentecostalism, and who had seen first hand the birth of the Catholic Charismatic movement, quickly denounced the prophecy as not coming from God. He compared it with many a false prophecy he heard as a young man which claimed the coming world rule of Stalin and the Papacy.[20] Ralph Martin, one of the best-known and respected Catholic Charismatics quickly spread the warning of “false prophecy” among fellow Catholics. Indeed, as time has shown, Catholic Charismatics never suffered persecution from their bishops, and although the movement slowed down in the USA after the 1980s, there are many Catholic Charismatic fellowships in the United States that are doing fine. Further, in Africa and South America the Catholic Charismatic movement has been instrumental in bringing millions of nominal Catholics to become true disciples of Jesus Christ.

Wilkerson’s prophecy goes to the core of the discernment problem. He did nothing wrong in reporting his prophecy. As a matter of fact, according to traditional Catholic theology, he would have sinned from cowardice had he not spoken. The famous Catholic theologian Karl Rahner, in a brilliant work, Inquiries, made clear that, the prophet is in a poor position to discern his own revelation. This is because if it is originating somewhere other than the Holy Spirit, it will play upon the fears, prejudices, and belief structure of his own subconscious mind and those in his immediate faith community.[21] It is the task of the church to judge prophecy, not the prophet. This again is Paul’s point in 1 Cor. 14:29.


It is important to note some other issues. It is clear that Wilkerson’s original ministry was blessed by God and has borne much fruit, yet The Vision was destructive. This is a modern example of Peter’s “multiple inspirations.” Peter declared that Jesus was the Messiah (Matt 16:17), but later urged Jesus not to continue to Jerusalem and His crucifixion (Matt 16:23). Perhaps the major failure with Wilkerson and his vision was that he did not seek an elder or mature spiritual director with whom to discuss his visions before he went to the public with them.


Mark Taylor prophesies on Trump

The year 2017 saw the publication of an influential best seller that described the prophecies received by a retired fireman Mark Taylor.[22] It pertained to how he had received various prophecies starting in 2011 that Trump would be President, and was chosen by God to bring America back to righteousness and it true Christian calling. The book was co-authored by Mary Colbert, an influential writer and editor who worked to gather a large number of Charismatic and Evangelical pastors to agree with the prophecy and pray for Trump’s election, and then his subsequent presidency.

The Taylor prophecies were not just one incident but a series of visions and “hearings” (called “locutions” in traditional discernment theology) supposedly from the Holy Spirit. These prophecies show many of the traits of false prophecy that have occurred throughout Church history. Among his predictions is the statement that Trump, after his election, would soon “captivate the media” and many in the mainline media will agree with his positions.[23] This has proven to be the very opposite of what has happened thus far, and perhaps merely represents a “wish for” presented as prophecy.

The Taylor prophesies are full of statements supposedly made by Lord that “tickles the itching ears” of conservative Republicans but affirming their beliefs and suspicions, but are contrary to the character and a true message of God. For instance, there are several passages in which the Lord categorizes both President Obama and the Clintons as totally evil. The Lord supposedly said:
Beware, beware, the enemy roams about seeking whom he can devour and this sitting President [Obama] is doing that in this hour [2016]. He’s full of lies and deceit and is very hateful; he spreads division and corruption with every mouthful. Beware when he says, “look over here, what the right hand is doing” to divert your attention from what the left hand is doing, is his intention. This is a setup from this President and his minions, from the hate, the division, and Hilary Clinton. … For the signs are clear to see, that this President and his minions shall try for thee. A sign will be, he will try to and take the guns so the people can’t rise up and stop him when he tries to run [for a third term].[24]
An astonishing statement about Obama indeed, with whose policies many would disagree, but his administration was relatively free of corruption – in contrast to the Trump administration where several of his advisors have already been sentenced to prison. Again, the contrast between truthfulness and lying between Trump and Obama is huge, but exactly to the contrary of what Taylor prophesied were true.

Further, the Holy Spirit does not rail against living persons and declare them evil, but if they are doing wrong, urges repentance. This utterance was not from the Holy Spirit, but a source using Taylor’s suspicions, fears and desires.

Another intemperate salvo against Obama has proven false with time:

For this man who holds the title of President of the United States, will begin to lose his grip from it and be stripped of it, for I, the Lord God, will rip it from him. The man who calls himself the Commander in Chief, is nothing more than a lying deceitful Thief![25]
This has now proven to be totally false, Obama left the White House with dignity, and in his inaugural address Trump recognized the gracious cooperation that Obama gave his transition team. The “prophecy” is another rant, manipulating and pandering to the ugliest areas of partisan Republican suspicions and hatreds.

The statement backing the pro-gun position of many Republicans and the NRA could not have been from the Lord. True Christianity has been reluctant to endorse weapons of any kind, and for instance, it is traditional for clergy to bless troops in war for their protection, but not their armament.

The above demonically-influenced gun control rant echoes several conspiracy theories that circulated about Obama and his administration in conservative Christian circles. The most famous one was the fuss over the Armed Forces exercise in 2015 in the South-West called “Jade Helm 15.” This involved about 1,200 servicemen practicing to intercept a vehicle loaded A-bomb brought in by terrorists via the southern border – a real possibility.

The conspiracy theory was that the Army was really sent to disarm conservative Texans of their weapons and bring them to empty Wal-Mart stores as makeshift concentration camps – several of which were indeed empty for renovation. Shamefully, this was widely believed, and even the Governor of Texas pandered to this conspiracy theory by ordering Texas National Guard officers to monitor the exercise just in case Texans started to be arrested.

Like many conspiracy theories, hatred and suspicion override common sense. It is impossible for 1,200 soldiers to carry out a grossly illegal order and disarm millions of conservative Texans, who are often very heavily armed.[26] That this conspiracy theory was believed by many Christian conservatives shows something very disturbing about their state of mind towards President Obama, their hatred overriding common sense, and this is continued in The Trump Prophecies – with demonic assistance.

Here we should note the important role played by the co-author of the Trump Prophesies, Mary Colbert. A well-heeled editor, writer and consultant, she read Taylor’s prophecies in manuscript form. She was from the same anti-Obama, anti-Clinton Republican mindset as Taylor, and instead as serving as a discerning elder, she fell for them whole. She then set out to organize Charismatic pastors and teachers to affirm the prophetic message that Trump was chosen by God to be President. That group has continued to pray for the President in his entire turbulent presidency.

That the Trump Prophesies is a false and demonically laced work is quite plain. Already we can discern some of its harmful spiritual fallout. Many younger persons who might have taken Evangelical Christianity seriously have been appalled by Trump’s tweeting cruelty and speech, and the uncritical support by given by so many calling themselves Evangelicals.

Adding to this calamity is the effects of Trump’s use of the term “fake news. The phrase had been used to accurately to describe invented and false news events planted by Bulgarian hackers for monetary gain. I recall in the year before the Trump Presidency seeing strange and unbelievable stories forwarded by my Facebook buddies. One story claimed that Mexico had built a long and expensive fence on the border with Guatemala to keep out immigrants. The message was of the “hypocrisy” of the Mexican government. It was totally false and the fence pictured in the story was of the Israelite fence along its border with Syria. The Bulgarian news-lies inventors were paid by the number of hits received on their websites. They, like demonic entities were careful to note and pander to the fears, suspicions and hopes of their target audience, often conservative Christians.

Trump appropriated “fake news” to mean any news that criticizes him, even if it is factually correct. But it is important to distinguish between “fake news” and normal partisan news coverage. They are not the same. Since the early years of our Republic, the press has been mostly divided along partisan lines. At one time it was the Jeffersonians vs. the Hamiltonians. In our own day, it is the bitter liberal/conservative divide. For instance, Fox News and CNBC most often give the same basic facts of the news, but with vastly different shades of interpretation, often emphasizing some items while ignoring others. In fact, it might be said that the Bible sanctions this sort of “partisan” interpretation. For instance, there are different interpretations David’s kingship in the book of Kings and Chronicles, with Chronicles being more positive and avoiding the story of David’s murder and adultery with Bathsheba.

However, neither the Bible nor reputable news outlets contradict facts or eliminate facts that are inconvenient. By calling embarrassing items “fake news,” as Trump is prone to do, serious spiritual damage is done but disabling the ability to tell truth from error.[27]

But to get back to The Trump Prophecies, it is my opinion that certain elements of it were originally from the Lord, as in the part received in 2011 that Trump would be President. This is similar to the mix of true and false prophecies that sometimes occur in church prophetic uttering. A person may begin with a short word of wisdom from the Lord, but as they go on past the revelation, drift into areas of their own prejudices and fears that can then utilized by demonic forces to incite fear, anger or mayhem.

The original fraction of true prophecy may be the factor why so many credible and anointed Charismatic and Evangelical pastors accepted it whole. This may have been why Mary Colbert was able to rally such a large group of reputable pastors and teachers behind the prophecy, and later convert it into a huge prayer support team for Trump. Of course, praying for a sitting President is enjoined in Scripture (1Tim 2:2). But the group organized by Mrs. Colbert became uncritical and accepting of Trump’s actions and his disrespectful and insulting tweets.

Here lies a large failure of the Forever Trump pastors. They became “court prophets” who agreed with all that Trump did and said, instead of discerning on what occasions they should play the role of Nathan to David (2 Sam 12), to rebuke sin when it occurs. To be biblically specific, the incident in 2 Kgs 22 shows four hundred kingdom-supported prophets “tickling the itching ears” of the Kings of Judah and Israel by prophesying victory in a coming battle. Only one (non-court) prophet, Micaiah, proclaimed the real message from the Lord – defeat. In fact, a very few Forever Trump pastors have had the discernment and courage to rebuke Trump in any of his intemperate sayings or actions. An exception to the rule is the popular TV evangelist Jetzen Franklin, who publicly rebuked Trump for his vulgar language reference to some of the more backward countries of the Third World.[28]

This failure to give just reproof began even before the 2016 election. One of the most disturbing aspects of the Trump campaign was his declaration that the Southern border wall would be built, and Mexicans would pay for it. Trump: “Who will pay?” Crowd: Mexico!” This dialogue was cruel, insulting and ultimately unrealistic, as time has shown. It played on a childish sense of revenge on Mexico. It unnecessarily offended Mexicans, and prevented a sane dialogue and diplomacy on the wall with the Mexican government. Christians who participated in this rant should repent of it. It is a scandal that the Christians pastors who supported and surrounded Trump during his campaign did not reproof him for this.

To be clear, I am for the wall being built, for our security, for our right to have a culture not radically and immediately changed. But also for a problem not much mentioned. The large scale migration of Central Americans to the US will have those countries much depleted of people and totally in the hands of various drug cartels that are forming “pirate states” that will prey on their own people. The process is well under way in northern Mexico and sections of El Salvador. The solution to this is very difficult since the drug cartels cannot be brought to justice in these countries as they control or terrorize the police and courts. In any case the continued depletion of the populace from Central America will mean that any solution to this problem will be impossible.

Immediately after the election Trump famously claimed that his voters were undercounted by 3,000,000 votes, the number that matched Hilary Clinton’s superiority in the popular count over Trump. This was a wild, narcissist stab, and grievous injustice to the integrity of the many Secretaries of State who ensured a clean election. In my state, Georgia, the Republican Secretary of State only found a dozen or so false or inaccurate votes out of the millions cast. Trump should have been reproved for this narcissist invention immediately by his Christian supporters.

One last comment would relate to the failure of the Republicans to bring forth a reasonable health coverage issue. Here again I feel there is some outright sin involved.[29] Many Republicans enjoyed mocking the Obama Affordable Care Act as “Obama Care” and something out of hell. Indeed, it was a flawed bill, but it extended coverage to millions, and could have been the basis of a reformed health care bill. Jeering dismissal by Republicans and Trump make rational discourse and compromise with the Democrats practically impossible. Again I invite Republicans who participated in this awful name-calling to consult their conscience in prayer and repent. The Affordable Care Act was very imperfect, but it brought millions health care coverage. The Republicans did zero, and ultimately must bear much of the blame for the thousands of Americans who are dying every year from lack of health care, and making us the laughing stock of the rest of the developed world.

I want to make clear that I do believe that some of the things that Trump has accomplished have been good and long overdue, such as his challenge to the unequal trade relationship with China and a revision of NAFTA. But even his accomplishments could have been achieved with less narcissist attachments. I do not intend to go further with a litany of Trumps political atrocities that have so harmed the civility and political discourse of our Nation. My intention is to appeal to Christians who have become Forever Trumpers that they need to reconsider, and perhaps repent, of their failure to be a Nathan to a very flawed David.
~~~

William L. De Arteaga, Ph.D., is known internationally as a Christian historian and expert on revivals and the rebirth and renewal of the Christian healing movement. His major works include, Quenching the Spirit (Creation House, 1992, 1996), Forgotten Power: The Significance of the Lord’s Supper in Revival (Zondervan, 2002), and Agnes Sanford and Her Companions: The Assault on Cessationism and the Coming of the Charismatic Renewal (Wipf & Stock, 2015). Bill pastored two Hispanic Anglican congregations in the Marietta, Georgia area, and is semi-retired. He and his wife Carolyn continue in their healing, teaching and writing ministries. He is the state chaplain of the Order of St. Luke, encouraging the ministry of healing in all Christian denominations.

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Blog Notes from 2006 (Moqtada al-Sadr et al)

From my old blog "Hootsbuddy's Place"(January 31, 2006) these were my notes in response to an essay by Salam Pax, pseudonym of Salam Abdulmunem, aka Salam al-Janabi, under which he became the "most famous blogger in the world" during and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Along with a massive readership, his site "Where is Raed?" received notable media attention. To my surprise, most of the hyperlinks from fourteen years ago remain active!

For the first anniversary of the Iraq elections Salam Pax has posted a sad retrospective. Whatever else you may read today, this piece should be on the list.

New bloggers may not know of Salam Pax, but he was one of the original Iraqi bloggers, writing from inside the country before Saddam was defeated. I remember reading his pseudonymous posts and wondering who he was. His sketches of life in Iraq provided a rare glimpse of events seen from the other side.
Story time: A week ago [this was written in March, 2003, as the invasion if Iraq was under way] on the way to work I saw a huge column of blackest-black smoke coming from the direction of Dorah refinery which is within Baghdad city limits, thought nothing of it really. A couple of weeks earlier to that a fuel tank near the Rasheed army camp exploded and it looked the same, stuff like that happens. My father was driving thru the area later and he said it looked like they were burning excess or wasted oil. Eh, they were never the environmentalists to start with; if they didn’t burn it they would have dumped it in the river or something. The smoke was there for three days the column could be seen from all over Baghdad being dragged in a line across the sky by the winds. 
During the same time and on the same road I take to work I see two HUGE trenches being dug, it looked like they were going to put some sort of machinery in it, wide enough for a truck to drive thru and would easily take three big trucks.A couple of days after the smoke-show over Baghdad I and my father are going past these trenches and we see oil being dumped into the trenches, you could hear my brain going into action, my father gave me the (shutup-u-nutty-paranoid-freak) look, but I knew it was true. The last two days everybody talks about it, they are planning to make a smoke screen of some sorts using black crude oil, actually rumor has it that they have been experimenting with various fuel mixtures to see what would produce the blackest vilest smoke and the three days of smoke from Dorah was the final test. Around Baghdad they would probably go roughly along the green belt which was conceived to stop the sandstorms coming from the western deserts. I have no idea how a smoke screen can be of any use except make sure that the people in Baghdad die of asphyxiation and covered in soot. I think I will be getting those gas masks after all.
Funfact: after the oil wells in Kuwait were set on fire and the whole region covered in the blackest and ugliest cloud it rained for days on Baghdad washing everything with black water from the sky, the marks took a year to wash out. I think Salman Rushdie would have found this very amusing, characters in his novels are always haunted by things past in the strangest ways, the shame of your actions following you and then washing you with it’s black water, no ablutions for you Mr. H watch your city covered with the shame of your actions. We have an expression which roughly translates to "face covered with soot" (skham wijih) which is used to describe someone who has done something utterly disgraceful. Getting your city covered with “skham” once has to haunt you for the rest of your life, now we get “skham from the sky II – the return of the evil cloud”. The world is just a re-run of bad movies, but Mr. W. Bush already beat me to that expression.
Here we are three years later [2006] and much has changed. The identity of Salam Pax was revealed and he wrote guest columns for The Guardian. A Google search will tell you more about him than you need to know. Other more influential figures have taken center stage and the voice of Salam Pax joined those in a multitude, a chorus of confused observers as a wave of populism sweeps the country. The people have spoken, and in so doing they have shown, once again, that the political center of gravity is too close to the ground for any great number of everyday voters to have a vision of liberal democracy. History has shown, and continues to show, that populism is not to be confused with a dynamic, forward-moving democracy.

Salam Pax is sassy as usual in this most recent missal. Even the name of his blog is not aimed at winning friends and influencing people. But his points are well-taken and deserve a hearing.
I am still trying to figure out the answer to the riddle of a democratic process that brings in an undemocratic government. We’ve all put ourselves in a very uncomfortable corner, every single on of us who believed that the people will choose what’s ultimately best for their future and the western democratic governments are the first in line.The right to choose your own destiny and all that. The problem is we seem to choose future car crashes for a destiny. 
What’s even more exasperating is what he US administration is doing in Iraq because it just won’t admit how wrong it all went. It goes back to “Democracy day” - the first elections, a year ago.
He bounces off a SC Monitor piece and a post by another Iraqi blogger to come up with some penetrating questions that need to be addressed by movers and shakers. If anything else is not clear, it is becoming painfully clear that the wrong people, whatever the reasons, are winning elections and coming to power, not only in Iraq, but other places as well.
Moqtada al-Sadr whom I first took notice of because of his inability to speak intelligibly is going to have a say in my future? 32 years old and not really the sharpest tool in the shed, the only reason he has such a big following is because of a father and uncle who were very respected scholars. Does this make him one? Apparently yes.
[...]
One of the things you used to hear a lot during the build-up to the war was that there is a strong secular, educated base of Iraqis which will be the foundation for the reconstruction effort and the political process. I believed that as well, more than believed, I thought I knew this to be a fact. This is the environment I grew up in, secular Shia and Sunni families whose fathers or mothers were educated abroad during the 40’s and 50’s and who sometimes talked to us about a life before the Baath Party was everything.
Thinking of this now it feels like I have been living in a make-believe world, I keep asking myself where are all the secular Iraqis? Where did all this religious extremism come from? And if we really are one of the best-educated societies in the Mid-East why do we keep making mistakes we made in the past?
He concludes with these lines. I suppose they might be called darkly optimistic, hopeful that the future might hold a brighter promise than what we see today. Here is the link again.
To come back to the question, is there a place for democracy? Well. I don’t think either of us has the heart to say no, deep down we know there should be a place. But it’s such an uphill struggle to keep believing that we be able to save ourselves from being hijacked by another form of totalitarian thought.
~~~~~
Fourteen years later, these notes are still interesting as a snapshot of what was happening in Iraq then as well as remarks about Muqtada al-Sadr, now 45, who was only in his thirties when these notes were made. See above: "...whom I first took notice of because of his inability to speak intelligibly is going to have a say in my future? 32 years old and not really the sharpest tool in the shed, the only reason he has such a big following is because of a father and uncle who were very respected scholars. Does this make him one? Apparently yes."
Muqtada al-Sadr

Muqtada al-Sadr is indeed one of the most influential religious and popular figures in Iraq, despite not holding any official title in the Iraqi government. He commands strong support (especially in the Sadr City district in Baghdad, formerly named Saddam City but renamed after the elder al-Sadr). After the fall of the Saddam government in 2003, Muqtada al-Sadr organized thousands of his supporters into a political movement, which includes a military wing known as the Jaysh al-Mahdi or Mahdi Army  Western media often referred to Muqtada al-Sadr as an "anti-American" or "radical" cleric. His strongest support came from the class of dispossessed Shi'a, like in the Sadr City area of Baghdad. Many Iraqi supporters see in him a symbol of resistance to foreign occupation. The Mahdi army operated deaths squads during the Iraq civil war.

Sunday, January 5, 2020

Extrajudicial Targeted Assassination Notes

As I write, the recent targeted killing of Qassem Suleimani by a US missile ordered by President Trump dominates the news cycle as pundits and politicians clamor to guess what it means and whether or not it may result in yet another war in the Mideast. Here are notes I wish to keep for future reference. There is a considerable body of research about targeted assassinations. This link was among the first I came across. What follows here barely scratches the surface of what appears at the link.

The transformation of targeted killing and international order (2017)

This article introduces the special issue’s question of whether and how the current transformation of targeted killing is transforming the global international order and provides the conceptual ground for the individual contributions to the special issue. It develops a two-dimensional concept of political order and introduces a theoretical framework that conceives the maintenance and transformation of international order as a dynamic interplay between its behavioral dimension in the form of violence and discursive processes and its institutional dimension in the form of ideas, norms, and rules. The article also conceptualizes targeted killing and introduces a typology of targeted-killing acts on the basis of their legal and moral legitimacy. Building on this conceptual groundwork, the article takes stock of the current transformation of targeted killing and summarizes the individual contributions to this special issue. The current transformation of targeted killing has kindled considerable interest among scholars and has resulted in a fast-expanding literature. This literature consists of three branches that address the use, legitimacy, and broader impact of targeted killing.
The first branch on the use of targeted killing includes statistical studies on the frequency of targeting killing, work on the history of targeted-killing strategies and studies on how and why agents resort to this type of violence.
International humanitarian law, or jus in bello, is the law that governs
how warfare is conducted. IHL is purely
humanitarian, seeking to limit suffering.
It is independent from questions about
the justification for war, or its prevention,
covered by 
jus ad bellum.
The second and largest branch discusses the legitimacy of targeted killing, that is, whether acts of targeted killing comply with legal and moral principles, and ponders whether states should amend these principles to meet the realities of armed conflicts. In this context, a fundamental question is whether the paradigm of law enforcement, which is restrictive regarding the use of lethal force against individuals, or the more permissive paradigm of armed conflict governs state-mandated targeted killing.... Focusing specifically on the paradigm of armed conflict, which the United States and Israel have invoked to justify their killing of terrorists actors, scholars have debated whether the jus ad bellum and jus in bello principles of Just War Theory still apply in asymmetric conflicts between states and terrorist organizations, or should be supplemented with new principles of a jus ad vim.
The third and final branch of the literature inquires into the broader impact of targeted killing. A first set of scholars focuses on the impact that the targeted killing of state leaders has on domestic political orders. A second set addresses targeted killing in the context of contemporary conflicts and debates local and regional effects such as increasing anti-American sentiments and psychological distress of local populations or the destabilization of governments and escalation of regional conflicts. Only few scholars have extended the scope further by addressing the effects of targeted killing on the current international order. Ward Thomas focuses on the anti-assassination norm that has consolidated together with the Westphalian international order and argues that the rise in targeted killing, or what he calls “the new age of assassination”, has resulted in a decline of this norm. While Ward Thomas addresses normative decline, Fisher concludes in his work that a “norm permitting the use of targeted killing for counter-terrorism purposes appears likely to emerge [emphasis added] and spread successfully". In a similar vein, Fisk and Ramos argue that a norm of preventive self-defense slowly supersedes the existing prohibition of the preventive use of force. Although these studies point to the relevance of inquiring into this dimension of the nexus between targeted killing and international order and provide a number of relevant insights, our overall knowledge of whether and how the current transformation of targeted killing is affecting the ideas, norms, and rules that constitute the global international order is still very limited. This special issue seeks to advance our understanding of this important question as well as to stimulate a sustained scholarly debate on it.

Craig Murphy's Lies, the Bethlehem Doctrine, and the Illegal Murder of Soleimani is an introduction to the writing of Daniel Bethlehem.
In one of the series of blatant lies the USA has told to justify the assassination of Soleimani, Mike Pompeo said that Soleimani was killed because he was planning “Imminent attacks” on US citizens. It is a careful choice of word. Pompeo is specifically referring to the Bethlehem Doctrine of Pre-Emptive Self Defence.
Developed by Daniel Bethlehem when Legal Adviser to first Netanyahu’s government and then Blair’s, the Bethlehem Doctrine is that states have a right of “pre-emptive self-defence” against “imminent” attack. That is something most people, and most international law experts and judges, would accept. Including me. 
What very few people, and almost no international lawyers, accept is the key to the Bethlehem Doctrine – that here “Imminent” – the word used so carefully by Pompeo – does not need to have its normal meanings of either “soon” or “about to happen”. An attack may be deemed “imminent”, according to the Bethlehem Doctrine, even if you know no details of it or when it might occur. So you may be assassinated by a drone or bomb strike – and the doctrine was specifically developed to justify such strikes – because of “intelligence” you are engaged in a plot, when that intelligence neither says what the plot is nor when it might occur. Or even more tenuous, because there is intelligence you have engaged in a plot before, so it is reasonable to kill you in case you do so again. 
I am not inventing the Bethlehem Doctrine. It has been the formal legal justification for drone strikes and targeted assassinations by the Israeli, US and UK governments for a decade. Here it is in academic paper form, published by Bethlehem after he left government service (the form in which it is adopted by the US, UK and Israeli Governments is classified information). 
So when Pompeo says attacks by Soleimani were “imminent” he is not using the word in the normal sense in the English language. It is no use asking him what, where or when these “imminent” attacks were planned to be. He is referencing the Bethlehem Doctrine under which you can kill people on the basis of a feeling that they may have been about to do something. 
The idea that killing an individual who you have received information is going to attack you, but you do not know when, where or how, can be justified as self-defence, has not gained widespread acceptance – or indeed virtually any acceptance – in legal circles outside the ranks of the most extreme devoted neo-conservatives and zionists. Daniel Bethlehem became the FCO’s Chief Legal Adviser, brought in by Jack Straw, precisely because every single one of the FCO’s existing Legal Advisers believed the Iraq War to be illegal. In 2004, when the House of Commons was considering the legality of the war on Iraq, Bethlehem produced a remarkable paper for consideration which said that it was legal because the courts and existing law were wrong, a defence which has seldom succeeded in court.

Again, there is much more at the link. This is just a sample to help me recall what's there.

Finally, here is a link to Daniel Bethlehem's eight-page paper at The American Journal of International Law.

NOTES AND COMMENTS
PRINCIPLES RELEVANT TO THE SCOPE OF A STATE’S RIGHT OF SELF-DEFENSE AGAINST AN IMMINENT OR ACTUAL ARMED ATTACK BY NONSTATE ACTORS
By Daniel Bethlehem
There has been an ongoing debate over recent years about the scope of a state’s right of self-defense against an imminent or actual armed attack by nonstate actors. The debate predates the Al Qaeda attacks against the World Trade Center and elsewhere in the United States on September 11, 2001, but those events sharpened its focus and gave it greater operational urgency. While an important strand of the debate has taken place in academic journals and public forums, there has been another strand, largely away from the public gaze, within governments and between them, about what the appropriate principles are, and ought to be, in respect of such conduct. Insofar as these discussions have informed the practice of states and their appreciations of legality, they carry particular weight, being material both to the crystallization and development of customary international law and to the interpretation of treaties.  
Aspects of these otherwise largely intra- and intergovernmental discussions have periodically become visible publicly through official statements and speeches, evidence to governmental committees, reports of such committees, and similar documents. Other aspects have to be deduced from the practice of states—which, given the sensitivities, is sometimes opaque. In recent years, in a U.S. context, elements of this debate have been illuminated by the public remarks of senior Obama administration legal and counterterrorism officials, including Harold Koh, the Department of State legal adviser, John Brennan, the assistant to the president for homeland security and counterterrorism, Jeh Johnson, the Department of Defense general counsel, Attorney-General Eric Holder, and Stephen Preston, the Central Intelligence Agency general counsel.  
While there has been no similar flurry of speeches elsewhere, important elements of this debate have also attracted comment in the United Kingdom over the years. For example, between 2002 and 2006, the UK House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee published a series of reports, entitled Foreign Policy Aspects of the War Against Terrorism, in which important elements of this debate were addressed.
As before, there is more at the link. Bethlehem's expectations about conflict resolution are muted at best. He adds later...
In parallel to these reports and statements, a good deal of scholarly writing has addressed the scope of the right of self-defense against imminent and actual armed attacks by nonstate actors. These writings have illuminated the complexity of the issues as well as the doctrinal divide that continues to beset the debate— between those who favor a restrictive approach to the law on self-defense and those who take the view that the credibility of the law depends ultimately upon its ability to address effectively the realities of contemporary threats. 
This scholarship faces significant challenges, however, when it comes to shaping the operational thinking of those within governments and the military who are required to make decisions in the face of significant terrorist threats emanating from abroad. There is little intersection between the academic debate and the operational realities. And on those few occasions when such matters have come under scrutiny in court, the debate is seldom advanced. [My emphasis.]  The reality of the threats, the consequences of inaction, and the challenges of both strategic appreciation and operational decision making in the face of such threats frequently trump a doctrinal debate that has yet to produce a clear set of principles that effectively address the specific operational circumstances faced by states.