Syria Snapshot via Josh Landis

Landis is the dean of all things Syrian. His latest Twitter thread indicates the Assad regime is at an inflection point. This collection of threads and links is part of the picture.

Thread by Landis...

The Rami Makhlouf affair: Fine thread by Asser Khattab setting out quotes from the highly staged plea from the Mr. 10% of Syria. Rami's slowly progressing alienation from cousin Bashar al-Assad, seems to be reaching an inflection point.
We have seen this before: Rifaat al-Assad

Rami Makhlouf, Bashar al-Assad's cousin and Syria's richest businessman, complained in a very rare live video about his "suffering". Addressing Assad, he said: "I will not embarrass you ... when I saw that I was a burden on you, I gave up my businesses..."
"Mr President ... send whoever you want to validate the documents. But I swear to God, I'm fed up with the existing cadre, who are always accusing me, always framing me as the one who is in the wrong, as the bad one," Makhlouf continued.
In the video, titled "be with God and do not care about anything else" Makhlouf repeatedly implored the president, his cousin, not to let his company, Syriatel, collapse, due to the huge sums of money he alleges that he is being asked to pay.
"Has Syriatel, for example, not been committed to paying its due taxes? Not at all! Has it failed to pay its dues to the treasury through the sharing of revenues that we do with the state ... which constitutes around 50% of revenue. If we get one lira, the state gets one lira."
"So what is the state asking from us today? And are they being reasonable? Of course not. Because they are going to contracts that were completed with the approval of both parties and no one has the right to change that ... we have the right to sue them, of course," Makhlouf said
Makhlouf: "Let's say that I am paying our employees 10 million liras, for example, he [someone from the state] is supposing that I should pay 5 million. Brother! I have 5000-5300 employees in this company, for example, they need their salaries, they have their expenses!"
"Am I not paying the salary of so-and-so and so-and-so, and paying such expenses, those ar real expenses, I swear! They are not fake. Examine them if you want. This is one of our issues," an agitated Makhlouf said.
Makhlouf said that he is paying around 10 billion liras each year in taxes. "Last year we paid 12 billions ... I implore you, people, we're not evading taxes, we are not manipulating the state and the country, because you are our people, does anybody steal from himself?"
"Those companies serve you [the people], and not me. I'm merely a small and simple part of this. I'm managing this work today, and this is a great honour that god has bestowed on me," said Makhlouf. "Mr President, I beg you, this is the truth."
This is Rami Makhlouf saying he's given up his businesses and turned to charity in 2011, a moment he made sure to remind Assad of in his video today. The words did not flow out of his mouth as seamlessly then as they did today. I wonder why.
"Why is it that when the giving increases, indignation increases too?" Rami Makhlouf wondered in a Facebook post a couple of days ago. He said that he had been threatened that all his businesses will be shut down.
Rami Makhlouf said "please" to his cousin Bashar al-Assad 13 times during the 15:25-minute-long video. He said that if this money must be taken away from him, then it should go to the poor, and that Assad must supervise it personally, because he doesn't trust anyone anymore.

BEIRUT (AP) — A cousin who has been a bulwark of support for President Bashar Assad posted a video on Facebook late Thursday pleading with the Syrian leader to prevent the collapse of his major telecommunication company through what he called excessive and “unjust” taxation.

The unprecedented video pries open what has been rumored as a major rift in the tight-knit Assad family, which has ruled Syria for nearly 50 years.

Rami Makhlouf, cousin of Assad and one of
the country's wealthiest businessmen.
File photo, 2010

Disputes and intrigue are not new to the family, including feuds and defections within its inner circle, particularly in the course of the country’s nine-year war. But the public airing of grievances is extremely rare, perhaps a reflection of the multitude of players vying for influence in the fractured country.

The cousin, Rami Makhlouf, was once described as central to Syria’s economy and a partner to the president. His video, posted on a new Facebook page, seems to be a running public diary of the widening rift — and the fall from grace of a once-powerful tycoon.

Media reports by pro and anti-government sites suggested a campaign was being pursued against Makhlouf, possibly at the behest of Russia, a powerful patron of Assad that sought to undermine an influential businessman. Russian media reports in recent weeks have published criticism of corruption in Syria.

Others view the rift through the lens of the Assad family.

“The dispute is between Makhlouf and Bashar’s wife, Asma Assad, over who controls the economy,” said a former Syrian diplomat, Bassam Barabandi, who defected in 2012.

Barabandi said Makhlouf’s financial holdings and charities have played a central role during the war in financing and ensuring patronage, particularly among Syria’s minority Alawite community — from which Assad hails.

Assad’s wife has her own charity and has built herself a major public role.

Others researching Syria’s complex business networks say the rivalry is with Assad’s younger brother, Maher, an army general who also has expansive financial dealings and ties with Iran.

Makhlouf, who is four years younger than the 54-year-old Assad, had declared that he was stepping aside from business to focus on charity work in 2011, at the start of Syria’s conflict. But he remained associated with the government. For the opposition, he has been the face of government hard-liners and the decision to crack down on dissent.

The European Union and the United States have imposed sanctions on Makhlouf for his role in supporting Assad’s regime.

In his 15-minute video, Makhlouf denied allegations that he evaded paying taxes for one of his largest business ventures, Syriatel, the biggest telecommunication company in the country. Syriatel has 11 million subscribers, with 50% of revenues going to the state.

“By God we are not evading tax or cheating the country and the state,” Makhlouf said. “How can someone steal from his own family?”

Makhlouf complains about a campaign pursued by people he doesn’t name who he says always paint him “as the one who has done wrong, who is bad.”

At times he pleads, halts and repeats himself. And in an indication Makhlouf has no access to Assad, he addresses the leader: “Mr. President, I implore you, this is the truth.”

“Here I want to address the president, to explain to him the circumstances of what is happening, to explain to him some of the sufferings that we are going through,” Makhlouf said, remarks that could be considered tone-deaf in a country where nearly 80% of the people are poor.

A Western diplomat who follows Syria, and who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said the video reflects a deepening family feud in which Makhlouf has been pushed out after “he overplayed his hand.”

Reports first surfaced last year of troubled relations as news of a government campaign against Makhlouf and his businesses began to trickle out. Initial reports said he was under house arrest, and then a series of stories appeared about him being fined and having his holdings confiscated.

Last month, a shipment of dairy products from one of Makhlouf’s businesses was confiscated in Egypt, reportedly with drugs hidden in the cargo. On his Facebook page, Makhlouf called the incident a set-up aimed at “defaming” him.

Then, in late April, Makhlouf was told to pay the equivalent of $180 million purportedly owed to the government by his telecom companies, according to The Syria Report, which follows the country’s economy. That claim appeared to be the trigger for Thursday’s video.

In response to Makhlouf’s video, the claiming authority said the money was for overdue operational costs since 2015 and urged him to reach a restructuring deal. Tax evasion, the statement said, is handled by another body— indicating more is yet to come.

At the end of the video, Makhlouf says he will pay what he is asked but calls on Assad to oversee how it is spent.

Barabandi said Makhlouf appeared to be trying to remind Assad that he still holds some influence. “In other words, if you lose me you lose the Alawite community,” the former diplomat said.

“This is something unheard of before, for someone (from the family) to speak out in this manner publicly.”
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Associated Press writer Zeina Karam contributed to this report.

Landis continues...

Rami has two trump cards, which may save him yet. He is family & he controls a vast array of Syrian businesses. The Makhlouf family is important. They are know to be more refined than the Assad side, even if Rami depended on coercion & thuggery to acquire his vast wealth.
His businesses, particularly Syriatel, is important to Syria's economy. When Rami threatens that thousands of Syrians dependent on him, he is right. A messy fight over control of his companies will hurt many at a time when Syria's economy is in shambles.
It is too early to count #ramimakhlouf out. We saw how Hafiz allowed Rifaat back from exile in an attempt to keep him close, even as he clipped his wings. I imagine that Bashar will do everything he can not to allow a complete break with Rami & the Makhlouf side of the family.