Joshua Landis on the death of Nasrallah

5 takeaways from Israel’s killing of Nasrallah

1. This is a turning point for the region and the axis of resistance. Israel has made a stunning show of its power, intelligence capabilities, and of Western technological and military superiority. If anyone had any doubts about Israeli power after Oct 7, those doubts have been dispelled. Iran turns out to be the paper tiger that many said it was.

2. The root problem of Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians has not been solved, indeed, it will only get worse. There are 7 million Palestinians living in historic Palestine. The 5.5 million living in the occupied territories have no rights, no sovereignty, no hope of self-determination. Netanyahu will come out of his Lebanon gambit a towering hero, who has secured his legacy and life’s work, which is to frustrate the two-state solution, ensure that no Palestinian state emerges in any part of historic Palestine, and that the occupied territories become Israeli territory. It is a great day for the messianic wing of Israel. Israel is likely to lurch to the right, disregard Palestinian hopes, and exacerbate its infractions of international law and norms.

3. The Arab World and Middle Eastern states must engage in self-criticism after the defeat, as Sadiq al-‘Azm so eloquently wrote following the 1967 debacle. The root cause of the weakness of Middle Eastern states is that they are not nation states. By this, I mean that their peoples share little common identity. They are not united around common goals and do not accept shared rules of citizenship, which prevents the rule of law from becoming internalized as it prevents the emergence of viable democracies in the region. Middle Eastern countries will fail to modernize or know stability so long as the victor of the moment is unable to accommodate the aspirations of the vanquished. This is true of Bashar al-Assad and the Alawi community that supports him in Syria, as it is of the rulers of Lebanon, Iraq, etc.

4. The resistance forces completely miscalculated the correlation of power. So many in the region convinced themselves that Israel and the US were in decline. They believed that the technological gap dividing them was narrowing not growing. They thought that the Arab World would help Hamas and the Palestinians, that America would turn away from the atrocities of Gaza, and that the West would isolate Israel.

5. Americans and Israelis, along with many Lebanese, will believe that the moment has come to pry Lebanon from the orbit of Iran, Syria and the resistance front. The search for an alternative Lebanese leadership has begun. The problem will be that the Christian and Sunni leaders of Lebanon will seek to purge the Shi’a from the military and state agencies, rather than to find an accommodation with their Shi’a brethren. They will undoubtedly try to send the Lebanese military to replace and disarm Hezbollah. The Shi’a will resist, and Lebanon’s fragile stability will again be shattered. Each community will close ranks to protect or enlarge its share of the Lebanese pie. The West and Israel tried to pry Lebanon away from its eastern orbit in 1982 and following the US occupation of Iraq in 2003. Both efforts failed. This one is likely to fail as well for the reasons outlined in #3.