Friday, July 28, 2023

The Real Goal of the New Mar-a-Lago Charges Against Trump

This is a backup copy for future reference.

The Real Goal of the New Mar-a-Lago Charges Against Trump

BY DENNIS AFTERGUT
JULY 27, 2023

On Thursday, the Florida grand jury that indicted Donald Trump and his valet, Walt Nauta, in June for obstructing a grand jury investigation and conspiring to willfully retain classified documents, filed a superseding indictment. That means the grand jury issued a new charging document to replace the old.

It’s a bombshell.

The new indictment adds a new defendant, Carlos de Oliveira, Trump’s property manager at his Mar-a-Lago property. More importantly, it also adds explosive new charges that include allegations of a conspiracy to corruptly persuade another person to alter, conceal, delete, and mutilate security camera footage at Mar-a-Lago.

That footage presumably documented the unlawful retention of government documents. The new allegation is that Trump sought to have it destroyed after receiving a grand jury subpoena for it.

Of course, an indictment is only an accusation, not proof. And the defendants are innocent until proven guilty.

Without minimizing the importance of those legal facts, one can state the obvious: These allegations are dynamite for a trial jury. Special Counsel Jack Smith would not have allowed the grand jury to include the charges unless he had compelling evidence to prove them. That evidence at the very least appears to include testimony from Yuscil Taveras, a Mar-a-Lago IT employee whom de Oliveira allegedly cornered in an audio closet days after Trump received the subpoena and told “the boss” wanted the server deleted.

This May Be the Strongest Legal Case Against Trump

As an experienced prosecutor, Smith knows that defense lawyers’ bottom-line job is complete if they provide a jury with enough reasonable doubt so that a single juror resists voting to convict and hangs the jury. Smith is not blind to the fact that Florida, where the trial will take place, is Trump country, and that jurors who start out leaning strongly his way are likely.

What Smith appears to have done with this superseding indictment, however, is to have assembled the kind of case that that is so strong—and alleged misconduct that should be so offensive to any law-abiding citizen—that any majority in the jury room for conviction will be armed with the kind of ammunition that could overpower even the most recalcitrant hold-out.

Here are four reasons why the new charges are packed with punch for jurors.

  1. First, you don’t need to be a criminologist, or even to have binged Law and Order episodes to understand that destroying evidence is what mobsters do to cover their tracks and try to stay out of the joint. Prosecutors call it “consciousness of guilt,” which can be the best available evidence of corrupt intent.
  2. Second, the new indictment makes clear that Jack Smith has an inside witness to the conspiracy—the indictment’s “Employee No. 4,” whom the New York Times has reported to be Taveras. The indictment details how the new defendant, de Oliveira, attempted to enlist Taveras in the newly charged obstruction by telling him, “The Boss wants to delete the server.”
    Per the indictment, when Employee No. 4 equivocated, Nauta repeated the statement insistently and asked, without apparently subtlety, “What are we going to do?” Again, this would sound to any juror like mobster talk.
    You can be sure of three things. First, there’s only one “Boss” at Mar-a-Lago. Second, Taveras testified to those words to the grand jury, or it wouldn’t have included them in the superseding indictment. Last, Jack Smith will not be relying on the word of Taveras at trial without a mountain of corroboration.
    Just to take a wild guess about one possibility: It could well be that there is video tape footage in the grand jury’s possession that show de Oliveira and Taveras stepping into that audio closet together. There’s also voluminous texts between de Oliveira and Nauta immediately after Trump would have been informed of the subpoena for the server that points to the pair plotting, as well as documentation of respective phone calls between the two men and Trump.
  3. Third, the time sequences detailed in the indictment scream cover up. Smith would not have described them so precisely without proof beyond any doubt of the timeline. It adds a layer of culpability that will be hard for any common-sense juror to resist.
    For example: On June 22, a Trump lawyer was informed that the grand jury was going to subpoena the security footage tapes. The next day, Trump talked by phone to de Oliveira for 24 minutes. The day after that the formal subpoena was delivered and Nauta, meanwhile, immediately changed his travel plans, returning to visit Florida instead of travelling with Trump from Bedminster to Illinois. At this point he contacted de Oliveira and Taveras to enlist them to meet at Mar-a-Lago. The conversations between de Oliveira and Taveras about “deleting the server” occurred first thing that Monday morning, June 27.
  4. Fourth, the grand jury has charged de Oliveira in a separate count of making false statements to the FBI about his role in the conspiracy. Again, the timing is critical. The recounted false statements occur in an interview months after the grand jury subpoena was received and after de Oliveira is on video moving boxes of classified documents, which the FBI had subpoenaed and acquired. In the FBI interview, de Oliveira denied six times—count them—that he had any role in the subterfuge.
    That count puts enormous pressure on de Oliveira, just as a parallel count charges Nauta with virtually identical falsehoods. To a prosecutor, and likely a jury, that strongly suggests they got their stories together.
    The pressure on these two Trump loyalists, whose lawyers are reportedly being paid by Trump’s PAC, does not mean that either will “flip.” Any one of us can just guess what promises Trump has made to them if he is reelected president and they keep quiet.
    But do note this: These separate counts give them a lesser crime to plead guilty to if either decides to protect himself. The maximum penalty for a false statement to the FBI is five years imprisonment. The maximum penalty of concealing or destroying documents from a grand jury is 20 years behind bars.
  5. Fifth, the superseding indictment does something for the nation. Trump himself, and his many defenders, have repeated the argument falsely equating the classified documents found in President Joe Biden’s office and those that Trump has claimed he had a right to. Many citizens not paying close attention may have fallen for that talking point.

But even for citizens who have to date failed to see the difference between Biden’s immediate cooperation in returning the documents in his home versus Trump’s 18 months of stonewalling, here we have something new: There is simply no way to misunderstand the new, even sharper contrast between Biden and Trump: There is no report that Biden sought to conceal anything from a grand jury, much less to have security camera footage obliterated.

And by the way. If, as Trump claims, he had every right to keep the classified documents after his presidency ended, why on earth did he feel a need to destroy tapes or a server?

Just to hammer the point, in this new superseding indictment, Smith added one more charge against Trump under the Espionage Act for a document he allegedly showed a reporter who was working on a book about Trump’s Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. As we know from the initial indictment, Trump is on tape discussing the document and saying that he never declassified it, an admission that blows a hole in one of his biggest previous defenses.

He has since claimed that there was never any document and that he was just discussing news clippings. Previously, the document had been missing—not recovered in the search of Mar-a-Lago—and Trump’s attorneys had said they couldn’t find it. Well, apparently now Jack Smith has found it. This newly discovered document—reportedly a plan of attack against Iran—will be hung on Trump to show how careless he was with the nation’s top secrets and how he knew that he had no right to show them to anybody.

These charges seem as close to bulletproof as they come.

https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1684883320029765632

Sunday, July 9, 2023

Twitter thread from Ukraine

Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.


I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war. These are the lessons I learned.

  1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
  2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
  3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
  4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
  5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
  6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
  7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.
Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different. But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 

2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense  But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 

This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives  Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 

3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment. So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion.

4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me.  Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs.

5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert. So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war.

6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines? Clearly, people are differently programmed. But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you.

7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X

Thursday, June 22, 2023

Mastadon Report

At this writing I am among a flood of cyber-refugees exploring the social media world beyond the old platforms which have for years enjoyed having those ubiquitous Facebook and Twitter icons splattered indiscriminately all over the web. I cannot imagine how much free advertising that little feature of social media might be worth. This morning I decided to curate this Mastadon equivalent of a Twitter thread...

Mastadon doesn't have an aggregator like the Twitter Threadreader (as far as I know) so I curated this interesting "thread" by Eric McCorkle here at my blog. 

emc2@indieweb.social
Eric McCorkle

Note up front: I'm going to use words like "decommodify", "consumerism", "capital", and "rentierism" a lot here, because I need the vocabulary. I am not a Marxist or some other kind of radical, nor wholesale anti-capitalist, and *certainly* not a revolutionary. I'm a social democrat, progressive, and reformist. Keep that in mind if you reply to me.

Something I don't think many people realize is just how much the OSS movement has altered the private sector.
Sure, there have been the SCO v. Linux suits, and the battles with old Microsoft, both of which OSS won, and it's certainly produced a huge amount of software at this point. But look back to the software industry of the 90s, and the picture looks *completely* different. [1/n]

Back then, there was a whole parasitic cottage industry of companies that made a living off of selling the kinds of software packages we take for granted today. You wanted crypto, you bought a closed-source library for 4-5 figures. Same for all kinds of protocols we take for granted today. Beyond that, standards were frequently closed, and cost that much.  ASN.1 was an example of this. This was essentially software rentierism. [2/n]

Worse yet, this created all sort of perverse incentives.  Example: "surfing the wave of mediocrity" [link]
It was more profitable to deliberately produce broken/non-compliant implementations, and make them deliberately just short of too buggy to buy. This had a serious negative impact on a number of standards.  ASN.1 and CORBA are two examples. In essence, there was zero incentive for interoperability, and lots of incentive to sabotage it. [3/n]

OSS has essentially wiped all this out by making alternatives freely available.  Nobody in their right mind would pay out 5 figures for an SSL implementation when we have OpenSSL and 4 other alternatives. Also, however many issues OpenSSL has had, closed-source libraries tend to be much worse. Sunlight is a good disinfectant. Put in terms of political economy, this is a significant degree of decommodification. [4/n]

This is *directly* responsible for the productivity of the software industry over the past 2 decades. The startup economy as we know it could not have existed under the previous rentier system.

There's no way you could have launched most startups in a world where you have to pay out 4 figures a head for an OS license, then that much again a head for a compiler, then either buy or reimplement every package. [5/n]

There are some very important lessons to learn about the relationship of #OSS and the private sector. Those who were around in the early days remember how rag-tag early OsS was. Anybody remember battling to get their network card working? Remember early Gnome/KDE? It was scrappy, a headache to set up, often ugly, and the UI/UX was *terrible*. By the late 2000's, Linux desktops were beating Windows Vista in UI/UX. [6/n] 

The reason for this is that OSS works on completely different dynamics from for-profit software. It is *highly* persistent, it tends to monotonically improve over time, and it is very hard to shut down. OSS is at its best when it embraces differentiation followed by cross-pollination. This enables it to explore alternatives and find ways around obstacles. It also makes it very hard to kill. This is something for-profit simply cannot do. [7/n]

At this point, I actually don't think OSS would have been killed had we lost the SCO v. Linux lawsuit itself. It would have been a massive setback, but an alternative would have stepped forward: BSDs, L4, or something. It's like Hydra: even if you manage to kill one project, two more will take its place. It also snowballs over time. The OSS ecosystem of today is *massive* compared to the old days. [8/n]

There was also a whole conflict over DRM. That's its own story, but the OSS world has fought and won several key battles to keep computing platforms open, and prevent a whole layer of rentierism from being set up. RIAA/MPAA were major opponents in this in the 2000s. So bringing it back, OSS has a *significant* effect on the for-profit sector simply by existing. [9/n]

Summarizing, it is

  1.  persistent and nigh impossible to kill,
  2.  more or less monotonically growing and improving,
  3.  inherently decommodifying.

Gates *hated* OSS in the old days for precisely all this, but even he ultimately came around. So that's history. Let's look at the #FediVerse...  [10/n]

#FediVerse had an additional barrier, that social media has a critical mass of users. For reference, I joined #Mastodon back in 2017, when it was below critical mass. The critical mass effect seemed to have #OSS attempts to affect social media behind the eight-ball.  The #TwitterMigration and #redditMigration revealed a very powerful approach for getting around this. [11/n]

Both of these reveal a shortcoming of for-profit social platforms. Cory Doctorow's concept of "enshittification" sums it up succinctly. In more detail, a for-profit platform is under a mandate to squeeze more and more profit out of its users. In a social media platform, this means more surveillance, data gathering, "use the app", and ultimately gouging where possible. [12/n]

Something else to note: the profitability of surveilling users, collecting their data, and selling it is steadily declining in profitability. The whole adtech world is constantly climbing uphill against an landslide.

The takeaway from all this is that for-profit social platforms will eventually create a crisis for themselves. They degrade, trying to squeeze more and more profit out of an increasingly arid source, until they eventually do something dumb and blow their foot off. [13/n]

What happened with Twitter is that #Mastodon happened to be poised, almost by accident, to scoop up enough users to rocket past the critical mass point, and became self-sustaining. What's happening with #reddit is similar, but it's enabling something analogous to a strike by the mods. This is essentially Naomi Klein's notion of Shock Doctrine, except being employed *against* capital, not by it. [14/n]

One of the biggest strengths of the #OSS movement is that it does not hesitate to use the tools of its opponents against them. Pretty much the entire left is uniformly and vehemently against that idea. OSS does it enthusiastically. I suspect it's part and parcel with the hacker mindset: pulling off political-economic zero-days is right in line with how we think. [15/n]

So now #TwitterMigration fed us enough users to get #Mastodon to critical mass, and then #redditMigration proved it can be replicated. We have a model that seems to work.

Enter Facebook. They're already in a death-spiral, and I suspect somebody over there figured out essentially what I've said here. So they want to try to jump in and get out in front of it. It's worth gaming out what they're up to. [16/n]

Two tactics that have actually succeeded in being an impediment to OSS have been carpetbagging (showing up and using organizational weight, presumed prestige, etc to shove out a project's leadership and take over), and de-inventing (my term: what Google did to XMPP, RSS, and is currently trying to do to email). Google has tended to employ both of these in its quest for hegemony. If Facebook knows what they're doing, this is what they are planning to do. [17/n]

If Facebook thinks merely being part of the Fediverse is going to somehow magically going to save them from a reddit-style catastrophe, they're sorely mistaken. That will only make it easier for people to leave when that time comes (and it will).

So by this analysis, #ActivityPub and other protocols, standards, etc are what need to be protected. More broadly, OSS would do well to develop better defenses against de-invention anyway. [18/n]

As for the question of whether to federate with Facebook, I go back to differentiation and cross-pollination. Diversity is our strength.  I have complete faith in the ability of OSS/FediVerse to outmaneuver a gigantic, ailing behemoth.

Somebody will figure out the right move at every point, and the rest will follow. The protocols will grow and adapt, and it will be on Facebook to keep up. [19/n]

So in closing, this is a very exciting time. #OSS has created a lot of change for the better, and back in November I felt like we were starting to remember that. I think this model, worked out and refined over the years is really quite powerful, and recent events have showed that. It's consistently overcome obstacles that were said to be impossible. So I'll close with the exhortation to dare to dream big about what else we might be able to accomplish.

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Hannah Arendt on Thought & Moral Propositions (1970)

[16ff]  Now Kant says "I do not approve of the rule that if the use of pure reason has proved something this result should later no longer be doubted, as though it were a solid axiom."  And he said "I do not share the opinion that one should not doubt once one has convinced one's self of something. In pure philosophy this is impossible. Our mind has a natural aversion against it. From which it seems to follow that the business of thinking is like the veil of Penelope. It undoes every morning what it has finished the night before."  
If it is true that the ability to think and even certain habits and the ability to engage in so profitless an enterprise must be ascribed by everybody -- to the many and not to the few -- then we find ourselves in a curiously difficult and paradoxical situation. For this everybody writes notebooks to tell us about his experiences, yet much more urgent business... And the few who do write books can hardly [make a coherent explanation(?)]. 

Wikipedia explains the Penelope reference.

Penelope is married to the main character, the king of Ithaca, Odysseus (Ulysses in Roman mythology), and daughter of Icarius of Sparta and Periboea (or Polycaste). She only has one son with Odysseus, Telemachus, who was born just before Odysseus was called to fight in the Trojan War. She waits twenty years for Odysseus' return, during which time she devises various cunning strategies to delay marrying any of the 108 suitors.
On Odysseus's return, disguised as an old beggar, he finds that Penelope has remained faithful. She has devised cunning tricks to delay the suitors, one of which is to pretend to be weaving a burial shroud for Odysseus's elderly father Laertes and claiming that she will choose a suitor when she has finished. Every night for three years, she undoes part of the shroud, until Melantho, a slave, discovers her chicanery and reveals it to the suitors.

Monday, June 19, 2023

Twitter exchange from Texas

New Blue USA is a progressive organization that is building a nationwide Political Action Committee to:

  • Fight Donald Trump, his MAGA forces and all others who seek to terminate the freedoms guaranteed by this nation’s constitution.
  • Build on recent Democratic Party successes at every level of the ballot.
  • Unify, streamline and prioritize the efforts of progressive organizations seeking to election well-qualified candidates.
  • Oppose those who embrace the rich and powerful elitist conservatives.

Founder Marty Taylor posted this today:

In 1984. Recent law school grad Greg Abbott was jogging in the affluent Houston, Texas suburb of River Oaks. When he jogged past Divorce attorney Roy Moore's home. A giant oak tree broke and tragically fell on Greg Abbott. Crushing his spine and leaving him paralyzed.
Uninsured and unemployed. Abbott had no health insurance. He had over $81,000 in hospital bills. He sued. Abbott got his hospital bills paid and received over $5.7 million dollars in payouts from Moore's home insurance and the tree services company who failed to detect the tree was rotten inside. Still to this day Greg Abbott gets a monthly check that includes cost of living increases each year.  And will  receive a check for the rest of his life.
When Abbott was on the Texas Supreme court . He voted to decrease the amount of money someone in a similar situation could receive. Gregg Abbott supported capping non medical damages in cases like his at $250,000. A reward like the multi million dollars in payouts Abbott received and still receives each and every month till the day he dies would be impossible today. Of course these bills were crafted to not be retroactive. So they do not affect Greg Abbotts payments.
Gregg Abbott does everything he can to hurt us Texans. While he laughs all the way to the bank every month with his very generous monthly check that he happily denies to another Texan who is injured in the same way as Abbott was. It goes without saying. This is another example of a GOP hypocrite. OK for me but not for any other Texan. That should be Gov. Greg Abbotts theme song for his life. What a despicable man who cares nothing about anyone's pain and suffering. He got his and to Abbot and the GOP. That's all that matters.

Reply:  Marty, I  have just read a previous tweet, and I  am interested in your background.  Being in the political world, what do you think has made people whom you felt as if you knew very well decide Trump was the answer?  I am so baffled by this, and people I thought I knew as well. 

Taylor: I have no idea. Like our dentist friend. He was from a Republican family but only became radicalized  by Donald Trump. I was raised in an affluent family that was Democratic on my dads side and Republican on my mothers. I was exposed to politics my whole life. We had two Governors of Tennessee and two Congressman in my family. Until Trump. We could disagree without being disagreeable. Those days are long gone. And that is very sad. Trump has made hatred of America and fellow Americans part of his brand.