Monday, November 11, 2024

Jay Rosen Thread

"When in doubt, draw a distinction."

Not sure where he got it, but in grad school one of my teachers told me that. Some of the best advice I ever received.
This THREAD is about some of the key distinctions I draw on to do my work. If you're into that kind of thing.😎

Ready? 

1/ For distinctions to do work, the terms have to be sufficiently close that prying them apart clears space for thought.

If I write, "bending is not the same as breaking," well, who said it was? That one is going nowhere. But "naked is not the same as nude" is an idea with legs.

2/ These notes about some of the distinctions I draw in order to do my work were written under the influence of two masters of the form: the French critic Roland Barthes, and the political philosopher Hannah Arendt, known for her striking distinctions— such as labor vs. work.

3/ For those who don't know me, I'm a J-school professor and press critic who writes about the media and politics, and journalism's struggle for survival in a digital world. I have a PhD in media studies, and 35 years experience in puzzling through problems in press behavor.

4/ Here we go with some key distinctions I use to do my work.

An audience is not a public.
"Audience" = people attending to a common object, typically a performance or spectacle.
A public is people with different interests who live in the same space and share common problems. 

5/ Audience vs. public, cont.
When people share common problems but don't realize it, they are an "inchoate" public. (John Dewey.)
One reason the presidential debates are such a big deal is that they are one of the few occasions when the audience is the public and vice versa. 

6/ Key distinction number two: journalism vs. the media (vs. the press)

~> I think of the media as the attention business, an industry whose product is audiences.
~> Journalism is a social practice, the purpose of which is to keep publics informed and hold power to account.

However— 

7/ Most journalists are employees of the media, and thus part of the attention business. This creates endless problems and compromises, which I hear about nonstop.

The press — to my way of thinking — is the institution that endures over time as journalists come in and out of it. 8/ 

Media, journalism, and the press are not interchangeable terms. Yet they are bound up with one another.
Media is the attention industry
Journalism is a social practice

The press is a key institution in a democracy
Journalists who work in the media carry forward "the press." 

9/ Jay's third key distinction: truth-seeking vs. refuge-seeking behavior in journalism.

Truth-seeking needs no definition. It is finding out what actually happened— and telling us.
Refuge-seeking is telling the story in a way that protects against anticipated attacks...

10/ Seeking truth vs. seeking refuge, cont.
My favorite description of refuge-seeking behavior in journalism comes from a former reporter for the Washington Post, Paul Taylor, in his 1990 book about election coverage. I have quoted it many times. 11/Truth-seeking is what journalists see themselves as always doing.

Refuge-seeking includes such common practices as false balance, "both sides do it," steering the story "down the middle," and the depiction of "dueling realities" in a divided nation. abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-… 

12/ Election 2020: Dueling realities about COVID-19 at Biden, Trump rallies

Thursday brings both President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden to Tampa, Florida, just five days before Election Day and as cases surge in the state.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/2020-election-campaign/?id=73886088

What is "political" need not be politicized. This is a point I make again and again in my press criticism.

When TV journalists with Sunday morning shows push back against major party candiates who are floating poisonous charges without evidence, that is a political act.

13/ But — and here comes my distinction — if journalists let an ideology distort their reporting so as not to injure a cause they manifestly believe in, then their work has been unduly politicized.
Journalism is political. It should not be politicized. 

14/ You cannot keep from getting swept up in Trump's agenda without a firm grasp on your own - PressThink

The 2020 campaign is here. Those who are covering it had better figure out what they are for, or they will end up as his enablers— as they were in 2016.

https://pressthink.org/2020/05/you-cannot-keep-from-getting-swept-up-in-trumps-agenda-without-a-firm-grasp-on-your-own/#p7

The great sociologist C. Wright Mills would distinguish between "troubles" and "issues."

My paraphrase: Troubles are the things people are actively worried about in their lives.

Mills: “An issue is a public matter: some value cherished by publics is felt to be threatened.” 

15/ Troubles are a category of experience. Issues emerge from the political system.

Why does this matter? Well, when people's troubles don't connect to what are called the issues, or when issues don't speak to troubles, democracy — and journalism — are working poorly indeed.

16/ If issues don't bear on common troubles, then focusing on "the issues" — as against the horse race — may not be the answer it seems to be.

Also: Great journalism puts a spotlight on troubles and turns them into issues, which is exactly what the movie, "Spotlight" is about.

17/In grad school I learned to distinguish between "ritual" and "transmission" views of human communication, a distinction introduced by James W. Carey.

"Transmission" means the movement of messages across space.

In rituals we produce a shared world and affirm common values. 

18/ When your cable news anchor says of an upcoming press conference, "we'll bring it to you live," that's transmission.

Ritual: When we gather at a memorial service to mourn the dead and co-produce loving memories.

I did a thread about this distinction. 

19/ What can a media critic do with it?

When the thing you're watching on CNN seems to have no value as information — and from it you are learning nothing — you can try to switch frames and see if the news makes sense as ritual: in production of a shared world. 

20/ "I expect what I may not predict."

Eight years ago, I wrote that my work as a press critic is "primarily about about the legitimation of the modern press: the various justifications for it, and how they match up with actual practice— or don’t." pressthink.org/2013/06/a-few-… 

21/ A few principles for how I operate as a critic - PressThink
"What are the proper grounds for criticism of a program like Candy Crowley's State of the Union on CNN, or a news story in the Washington Post, or a blog post at Gawker? The decisions I make about tha…
https://pressthink.org/2013/06/a-few-principles-for-how-i-operate-as-a-critic/
During Trump's second impeachment, I put this distinction to work like so:

22/  Follow me on this: Subscription and membership are not the same thing.
Subscribers buy a product. Members join a cause.
The distinction matters because around the world readers are being asked to pay more of the costs for quality journalism.

23/ Notes on Membership - PressThink
Amid the search for a sustainable path in journalism
When you cannot receive the product unless you pay your share of the costs, that’s subscription.

Membership does not imply a paywall. People who have joined the cause often want the journalism to be available to those who are not members. Which is how public radio operates. 24/ 
Other distinctions I thought of including:

Lying vs. bullshitting
Experience vs. expertise
Exit, voice, and loyalty (A.O. Hirschman)
Tame vs. wicked problems
Demos vs. memos (@mattwaite)
Information overload vs. filter failure (@cshirky)

To wrap this thread, let's review...

25/ Some key distinctions I use to do my work:

Public vs. audience
Journalism vs. the media
Truth-seeking vs. refuge-seeking
Political vs. politicized
Issues vs. troubles
Ritual vs. transmission
Expect vs. predict
Subscription vs. membership

"When in doubt, draw a distinction." END 

Note: I see a couple of my outlines don't work and my transcription is a bit off in places, but at this writing the Threadreader link is working. This post is simply to make reading a bit easier.

Monday, October 28, 2024

China's Ghost Cities

Kaynat Kakar ✪ @kaynat_kakar

China's GHOST Cities

$170 BILLION worth of Empty Cities, Abandoned Skyscrapers, and Fake European Towns that nobody lives in:


Here are China's most Haunting Ghost Cities:

1. Ordos 
A $161 billion ghost city built for 1 million people.

• Currently 90% empty

• Built during the coal mining boom

• Looks like a sci-fi movie set

https://x.com/i/status/1850803667974111519• Most apartments are owned by investors who never lived there

2. Jun Ming's Ghost Districts

• Population size of Madrid

• 15 skyscrapers demolished in 2021

• Unfinished since 2013

• Empty kindergartens

• Abandoned hospitals

3. Tianducheng: "Paris of the East"

• Complete with Eiffel Tower, pairs streets and buildings replica

• Empty Champs-Élysées

• Planned for 10,000 residents

• Current population: 1,000

• Too expensive for locals

• Mostly tourist attractions

4. Yujiapu: "China's Manhattan"

• $50 billion investment

• Empty skyscrapers

• No rush hour traffic

• Promotional video mocked NYC

• Ironically, it became more deserted than NYC

5. Thames Town: "Little London"

The Replica of London City

• Red phone boxes ✓

• Fish & chip shops ✓

• English pubs ✓

• Victorian architecture ✓

• People? ×

• Another failed replica city 

6. Chenggong: The Student City

• Failed city turned university hub

• 7 colleges moved in

• Busy during term time

• Ghost town in winter

• Gradual transformation

7. Why Does China Keep Building?

• Property = safe investment

• Chinese can't invest abroad easily

• Real estate drives economic growth

• Middle-class parks money in empty homes

• Construction = GDP growth

8. Why This Matters:

• Shows risks of rapid development

• Property bubble warning

• Environmental impact

• Resource waste

• Economic sustainability questions

9. China's ghost cities represent human history's largest real estate bubble. 

Only time will tell whether they become thriving metropolises or remain empty monuments to excess.

That's a wrap

I hope you enjoyed it and found this thread helpful.  

- Share with your friend for support.

- Follow me @kaynat_kakarfor more useful content.

Sunday, October 20, 2024

IDF reports fatigue and morale loss

Tony Karon linked this thread in the wake of Israel's Iran initiative.

Sina Toossi is a senior research analyst at the National Iranian American Council, where he conducts research and writing on U.S.-Iran relations, Iranian politics, and Middle East policy issues. His writings have appeared on Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and Al Monitor, among other outlets. He holds an MA in international affairs from American University’s School of International Service, with a regional concentration in the Middle East. 
 
🧵A very important piece: an Israeli outlet reports severe morale loss and exhaustion among soldiers, with many now refusing to serve.
Based on interviews with soldiers and families across units, it's described as a "suppressed but growing phenomenon."
2/ The piece opens with a striking anecdote:
In September, the Nahal Brigade began its 11th round of combat in Gaza, but out of a platoon of 30 soldiers, only 6 showed up—the rest claimed medical exemptions.
"I call it refusal and rebellion," says the mother of one soldier.
3/ The mother describes the sense of futility the soldiers feel:
"They keep going back to the same buildings they’ve already cleared, only to find them booby-trapped again. In the Zaytoun neighborhood alone, they've been there three times. They understand it’s pointless."
4/ One IDF soldier explains that the growing shortage of manpower means missions are "done halfway."
He adds, "The platoons are empty; those who aren’t dead or physically wounded are mentally broken. Very few come back to fight, and even they aren’t fully okay."
5/ The soldier notes that all of this was happening before the escalation in Lebanon and the current ground incursion.
He says, "I don't know with what army they think they'll enter Lebanon, because there is no army. I'm not going back to the battalion."
6/ The article states that this a suppressed but growing phenomenon of soldiers refusing to fight. The unity and sense of mission that once drove them has faded. "They fought until their last ounce of strength, but reached a point where they just couldn’t continue."
7/ Many parents say the soldiers' morale began to break down in April, as the war dragged on, and their sense of purpose started to fade.
"When they had to return to places we’d already been, like Jabalia, Zeitoun, and Shuja'iyya, it broke them," one parent explained.
8/ "What’s killing them are the conditions and the prolonged fighting without any end in sight," says on parent. "Not to mention the loss and the horrific scenes they witness in Gaza."
9/ One soldier says, "We’re sitting ducks in a shooting range. We don’t understand what we’re doing here...The hostages aren’t coming back, and it just feels never-ending—soldiers are getting injured and dying along the way. It all seems pointless."
10/ The article states that most of these soldiers refusing to serve (under medical exemptions) aren’t being sent to jail, and the whole situation is being kept quiet.
11/ It adds that after 12 straight months of a war that feels directionless, soldiers describe themselves as “black”—military slang for feeling depressed, exhausted, and drained of motivation.
"Today the motivation is zero."
12/ The article describes the situation Israeli soldiers face in Gaza: the only "music" they hear is the sound of air force bombs, and the air reeks of death and decay. They feel abandoned by the army, treated like mere tools on the path to "absolute victory."
13/ One Israeli soldier says: At a certain point, we were all exhausted & couldn’t see the purpose in going back to places we’d already been...Eventually, I stopped feeling anything. I lost faith in the system & no longer believed in what we were doing.
14/ The Israeli soldier recalls, "I was mentally exhausted, having anxiety attacks so severe that when they told us we were done maneuvering, I thought I’d get a break. I broke down, crying on a lawn, saying I couldn’t take it anymore. I was completely finished mentally."
15/ The soldier says his commander accusing him of "abandoning the country" & reprimanding him before the platoon.
But "the day," another "soldier came up to me and asked how I did it. He wanted to, but didn’t have the courage."
The next day, he left too.
16/ The shortage of soldiers has forced those who need mental health treatment to fight.
"My son went to his company commander & said, 'I feel like my alertness has dropped so much that I’m not only putting myself at risk, but also those around me. I’m not as sharp as I was."
17/ One father says, "The only way to stop this downward spiral or get some rest is to say, 'I refuse,' and then you're instantly treated like the most humiliated person on earth...It doesn’t matter what you’ve sacrificed, what you’ve been through, or what you’ve done."
18/ On the other hand, those who do manage to get mental health leave face emotional blackmail.
One soldier’s brother explains that when his sibling returned home, he couldn’t sleep in his room, barely ate, & was in severe mental distress--but still was forced to go back.
19/ Cultural differences among Israeli soldiers from different nationalities also complicate addressing morale issues.
One commander told his subordinates, "I come from a Polish family, where we don’t talk about feelings—that’s how I was raised, and that’s my way."
20/ A similar situation is unfolding with soldiers entering Lebanon. Exhausted, hundreds of paratroopers recently united to fight for "their rights", expressing anger, frustration, and distress over the lack of understanding about their urgent need for rest at home.
21/ Stunningly, these paratroopers entering Lebanon are being threatened with fines for military equipment lost or destroyed on October 7 or during the fighting and are denied new equipment until they sign that they are responsible for the loss.
22/ The piece ends with a powerful statement from an Israeli soldier: "If the treatment doesn’t improve soon, the little wind left in our sails will also disappear."
23/23 This isn’t the only Israeli report highlighting faltering morale and manpower shortages in the country's military.
These reports raise serious questions about the feasibility of Netanyahu prolonging the Gaza war or escalating conflicts with Lebanon and Iran.
/end🧵
10:35 AM · Oct 20, 2024
3,101 Views

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Yahya Sinwar Killed

Yahya Sinwar, Leader of Hamas, Is Dead

Yahya Sinwar, the Palestinian militant leader who emerged from two decades of prison in Israel to rise to the helm of Hamas and help plot the deadliest assault on Israel in its history, died on Thursday. He was in his early 60s.

A longtime Hamas leader who assumed its top political office in August, Mr. Sinwar was known among supporters and enemies alike for combining cunning and brutality. He built Hamas’s ability to harm Israel in service of the group’s long-term goal of destroying the Jewish state and building an Islamist, Palestinian nation in its place.

He played a central role in planning the surprise assault on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, that killed about 1,200 people, brought 250 others back to Gaza as hostages and put him at the top of Israel’s kill list. Israeli leaders vowed to hunt him down, and the military dropped fliers over Gaza offering a $400,000 reward for information on his whereabouts.

But for more than a year, he remained elusive, surviving in tunnels Hamas had dug beneath Gaza, even as Israel killed many of his fighters and associates.

Laura Rozen thread the first hour after the announcement.

Ghaith al-Omari on Wash. Institute zoom on suspected Sinwar death: It's a very significant strategic blow for Hamas. sinwar was a unique leader in the sense that he had very strong standing, both in the military ring of Hamas and in the political wing of Hamas.

He says Sinwar is likely to be replaced by one of the Hamas leaders who are in Qatar right now. Will be more susceptible to outside pressure

Dennis Ross: You can look at this two different ways. One would be, you could go back to trying to get a hostage deal, because Sinwar, in many ways, was the reason there was no hostage deal.

Ross: …But you can also look at this from the standpoint that, having achieved much of what it was seeking to achieve in Gaza, you could put the prime minister in a position where he could declare success and say, Okay, we're..now ready to end the war.

Ghaith al-Omari says while Hamas center of gravity will move to the diaspora, and they are more susceptable to inducements/pressure, their ability to produce change on the ground is more limited.

Ross and al-Omari see the US use of B-2s to target underground Houthi facilities last night as being intended as a message to Iran. Al-Omari: The bigger message was to Iran. They used the B2s and the munitions that were used is a message to Iran that their deep underground facilities are vulnerable

Vice President Harris speaks to reporter about the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinawar by Israeli Defense Forces in Gaza.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5137239/user-clip-vp-harris-killing-sinwar


Laura Rosen thread later...

Jake Sullivan, asked, with Sinwar death, if thinks could reach ceasefire by end of year: “I’ve long since given up on making predictions or drawing timelines. All I can say is that we see an opportunity now that we want to seize to try to secure the release of the hostages, and we're going to work at that as rapidly” (as possible)

“His removal from the battlefield does present an opportunity to find a way forward that gets the hostages home,… brings us to a day after.

That's something we're going to have to talk about with our Israeli counterparts.”

Sullivan: “We've had very constructive communications with the Israelis about how they're thinking about responding to the attack on October 1. Those conversations will continue.”

Sullivan: “We've had very constructive communications with the Israelis about how they're thinking about responding to the attack on October 1. Those conversations will continue.”


This man's cruelty was legendary.

Arrested by Israel in the late 1980s, he admitted under interrogation to having killed 12 suspected collaborators. He was eventually sentenced to four life terms for offenses that included the abduction and killing of two Israeli soldiers.

Michael Koubi, a former director of the investigations department at Israel’s Shin Bet security agency who interrogated Sinwar personally, recalled the confession that stood out to him the most: Sinwar recounted forcing a man to bury his own brother alive because he was suspected of working for Israel.

“His eyes were full of happiness when he told us this story,” Koubi said.

He became the leader of the hundreds of imprisoned Hamas members. He organized strikes to improve conditions. He learned Hebrew and studied Israeli society.

Friday, October 11, 2024

Searching for Hope in the Wake of October 7

Searching for Hope in the Wake of October 7

The author traveled throughout Israel-Palestine and found a society still reeling with grief

Lisa Goldman  Lisa Goldman is Europe Editor at New Lines magazine    October 7, 2024

For weeks after Oct. 7, I was mute with horror. Quite a few people wanted me to offer a private explainer or do media interviews. I couldn't. But six months later I went to Israel-Palestine and talked to Palestinians and Israelis for this article.

I wasn't interested in talking to politicians or leaders. I wanted to hear from friends, acquaintances, ordinary people on the streets. Those deep personal conversations and chance encounters offer the most revealing insights.

The question of "why can't they feel compassion for the other" is not very interesting. There are no real answers and the few on offer don't bring any insight. What's much more interesting, in my opinion, is to see how people function under extreme stress.

How do people behave toward those closest to them and toward the world when they feel that the social contract they believed in has been shattered by their government's indifference?
How do people behave when they are surrounded by political violence in the only place they feel truly at home?

There are many answers to that question. Here are some that I found:
People become particularly tender and protective toward those closest to them, especially their children.

This was something I saw in Sawsan, the 39 year-old mother of 5 from Gaza, who was able to bring them to Israel because she had Israeli citizenship, though the authorities made her walk through fire. I wrote about her harrowing journey and the effect of the war on her children.

And I'll never forget listening to Shira Albag, mother of 19 year-old Liri, who was taken hostage on Oct. 7, emit that primal scream of heartbreak and loss while addressing a demonstration in Tel Aviv.

And yet, despite the widespread sense of fear and agony I encountered everywhere, the cliche about life going on was spectacularly proven. People went to concerts, the beach, cafes and restaurants. As one friend said, "The whole world is on fire, but the family is lovely."

These are some of the observations I collected while traveling from the north to the south, to the West Bank and Jerusalem, talking to people from as many backgrounds as possible and trying to tell the story of a place through human experience.



Friday, October 4, 2024

Hurricane Misinformation -- Jamie Dupree Twitter Thread



Jamie Dupree  @jamiedupree
Donald Trump and Republicans claim that FEMA doesn't have money for Hurricane Helene relief, because as much as $1 billion or more was transferred out of FEMA's Disaster Relief Fund to deal with illegal immigrant needs.

There is no evidence of that.  🧵 1/ with receipts

FEMA puts out a monthly report on how much is in the Disaster Relief Fund.

It lists all the transfers of money and what's been spent.

You can find them at this link: https://fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/disaster-relief-fund-monthly-reports  2/

The latest report lists several minor transfers in and out of FEMA's Disaster Relief Fund in 2024.  They don't come close to $1 billion, and don't involve aid for illegal immigrants.  

https://fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/fema_ocfo-september2024disasterrelieffundreport.pdf#page=7
3/

FEMA has now set up a 'Rumor Response Page' to address this specific charge that money was moved out of the Disaster Relief Fund.  

https://fema.gov/disaster/current/hurricane-helene/rumor-response 
4/

Was FEMA money spent on housing for migrants?  Yes.  But it didn't come from the Disaster Relief Fund.  Congress approved a transfer of $650 million from Customs and Border Protection into a special shelter program run by FEMA. 

https://congress.gov/118/bills/hr2882/BILLS-118hr2882enr.pdf#page=139 
5/

Has FEMA ever transferred money from the Disaster Relief Fund to illegal immigration efforts?  YES.  

Donald Trump did that in 2019.  $38 million was transferred from the Disaster Relief Fund to ICE.

 https://fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/disaster-relief-fund-report_9-2019.pdf#page=7  
6/

FEMA will issue another monthly report on the Disaster Relief Fund later this month.  We'll be able to check the details again soon.

At this time, Trump's claims are FALSE.   
/fin

One more tweet.  Does the Disaster Relief Fund need money?  Yes.  The White House asked for $20 billion.  House Republicans did not include any money in the CR.

FEMA has regular resources for disaster work.  But the Disaster Relief Fund needs more to deal with Helene. /fin


Sunday, September 29, 2024

Reflections on tip wages and taxes

Reflections on tip wages and taxes

One topic being discussed in the presidential race is the taxation of tip wages. Some of us old-timers remember a time when tips were not taxed at all simply because they were not reported by those who received them. 
In my early years as a food service manager I learned there is an exception to the so-called "minimum wage" which creates a double incentive for both employers and employees to avoid taxes simply by not reporting them. 
The way that works is that employees working for tips must receive a legally mandated minimum hourly wage in case they fail to receive any tips. The so-called "tip wage" varies from state to state, but the arithmetic is basically the same. The illustration above explains how that works. Employers receive a "tip credit" for the difference and the employee is taxed on the rest. At the end of the tax year, the employee's 1099 reflects 100% of earned taxable income to be paid by the employee.
What a deal! The employer gets loads of business from happy customers and the service staff pays taxes on the actual selling price received from the public. 
In the old days smart employees understood the system. Only they knew how much money they were receiving in the form of tips, so it was their responsibility to report that amount so their employer could receive that tip credit for tax purposes. Anything over that amount was also supposed to be reported to the employer so that their W-2 accurately reflected their taxable income. But who in their right mind wants to pay more taxes? What about profits from yard sales? Income from flea markets? Local vendors peddling crafts or snacks on the sidewalk?
You know where this is going.
Comes now Uber, Lyft and a load of other "service" businesses which have always been an important part of the economy. I once read that the word tip was an abbreviation for To Insure Promptness. In any case, as the service industry grew (and yes, it is now an industry) the corporate sector continued to receive the ever-growing so-called "tip credit". The end product in many cases has become a service sold to the public using virtually nothing more than an accounting exercise. The principle "investment" for many so-called "service"businesses is crafting documents outlining a business plan, replete with market surveys, advertising strategy, financing arrangements and legal documents tying the whole package together with the expectation of hitting the jackpot when another IPO hits the market.
The days are long gone when tips were actual currency received by whoever rendered a service. Thanks to the magic of electronic transfers of financial transactions, there is now a paper trail.
 
Back now to "No taxes on tips".
I'm just an old cafeteria manager well into retirement, virtually ignorant about the ramifications of both accounting and legal matters. These reflections are simply my way of thinking out loud. I knew when I retired early I would have to find a job with health insurance and to that end I actually got a CDL in order to become a bus driver for my wife and myself, expecting to be insured by the school system. I was so sheltered during my years of service that I knew nothing about PTO or shift differential, both of which were routine features of the hospital where I became a "team leader" in the dining room of a retirement facility. 
At this point I'm simply waiting to see what becomes of this latest appeal for votes during a presidential election. My guess is that the ignorance of the voting public will simply add this new trope to the list of ignorant discussions already under way so there is no need for me to add anything more.
I just wanted  to get this much on the record for future reference. 


Saturday, September 28, 2024

Joshua Landis on the death of Nasrallah

5 takeaways from Israel’s killing of Nasrallah

1. This is a turning point for the region and the axis of resistance. Israel has made a stunning show of its power, intelligence capabilities, and of Western technological and military superiority. If anyone had any doubts about Israeli power after Oct 7, those doubts have been dispelled. Iran turns out to be the paper tiger that many said it was.

2. The root problem of Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians has not been solved, indeed, it will only get worse. There are 7 million Palestinians living in historic Palestine. The 5.5 million living in the occupied territories have no rights, no sovereignty, no hope of self-determination. Netanyahu will come out of his Lebanon gambit a towering hero, who has secured his legacy and life’s work, which is to frustrate the two-state solution, ensure that no Palestinian state emerges in any part of historic Palestine, and that the occupied territories become Israeli territory. It is a great day for the messianic wing of Israel. Israel is likely to lurch to the right, disregard Palestinian hopes, and exacerbate its infractions of international law and norms.

3. The Arab World and Middle Eastern states must engage in self-criticism after the defeat, as Sadiq al-‘Azm so eloquently wrote following the 1967 debacle. The root cause of the weakness of Middle Eastern states is that they are not nation states. By this, I mean that their peoples share little common identity. They are not united around common goals and do not accept shared rules of citizenship, which prevents the rule of law from becoming internalized as it prevents the emergence of viable democracies in the region. Middle Eastern countries will fail to modernize or know stability so long as the victor of the moment is unable to accommodate the aspirations of the vanquished. This is true of Bashar al-Assad and the Alawi community that supports him in Syria, as it is of the rulers of Lebanon, Iraq, etc.

4. The resistance forces completely miscalculated the correlation of power. So many in the region convinced themselves that Israel and the US were in decline. They believed that the technological gap dividing them was narrowing not growing. They thought that the Arab World would help Hamas and the Palestinians, that America would turn away from the atrocities of Gaza, and that the West would isolate Israel.

5. Americans and Israelis, along with many Lebanese, will believe that the moment has come to pry Lebanon from the orbit of Iran, Syria and the resistance front. The search for an alternative Lebanese leadership has begun. The problem will be that the Christian and Sunni leaders of Lebanon will seek to purge the Shi’a from the military and state agencies, rather than to find an accommodation with their Shi’a brethren. They will undoubtedly try to send the Lebanese military to replace and disarm Hezbollah. The Shi’a will resist, and Lebanon’s fragile stability will again be shattered. Each community will close ranks to protect or enlarge its share of the Lebanese pie. The West and Israel tried to pry Lebanon away from its eastern orbit in 1982 and following the US occupation of Iraq in 2003. Both efforts failed. This one is likely to fail as well for the reasons outlined in #3.


Saturday, July 27, 2024

Kal File

Thanks to a blogspot feature I just discovered, I came across these notes I collected a few years ago from my old blog. I lost track of Kal after a few years and he deleted his posts, but here are a few copies I kept because I was very impressed with this young man. Perhaps some day he will identify himself and take credit for his impressive posts in the past.

Collected here are copies of posts from my old blog for future reference. I was inspired to collect them by a brief series of Twitter messages posted by Kal a while ago (May 17, 2013). My plan is to keep these in a "draft" folder for safekeeping so not to embarrass Kal by publishing them.
These messages tell me more about Kal than I knew before. I know he changed his screen name from Nouri to Kal (I didn't mark the date) and has since scrubbed and deleted a lot of old material. But these are the gestures of youth. I'm saving here, scrapbook-style, some of the snapshots I kept of those days he now finds embarrassing, which I always appreciated in the way an old man likes to see young people grow and mature.
I'm copying them without reformatting in the hope that since both are google/blogspot properties they will be compatible.

~~~~§§§~~~~

TUESDAY, APRIL 18, 2006


The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East

Read this book review by Nouri Lumendifi. I can't decide if I am more impressed with the book or the reviewer. After reading what appears to be a very scholarly review of an important newly-released book, I looked at the profile of the reviewer.

The profile description of the blogmaster of The Moor Next Door says he is seventeen years old! I have a hard time believing that. Kids that age just don't write like this. But apparently this one does.
Mission Statement of the Moor Next Door

"The Moor Next Door" is a blog whose purpose is to allow me to express myself and to provide a liberal look at Algerian, and Euro-Maghrebi/Middle Eastern affairs, as well as American, Algerian and European foreign policy. In addition, with this blog I seek to explore various theories of history and politics and how they relate to one another. Issues of nationalism, identity, history, religion, and the like as the fit into the previously mentioned contexts are intended to be the primary focus.

I write this blog with Americans, Europeans, North Africans, liberals, conservatives (in the Middle Eastern sense), and just about every other sort of folk in mind. I do not tailor my posts to them however. I'm not writing to please, but to inform. I base my opinions from facts and I formulate them from what I see and know. If you don't like them, you probably know something I do not, so tell me. I am open to different ideas.

You think that's impressive? Go look at his list of "favorite books."

Oh, and before I forget, this post is about the book he reviewed as well. I am struck by the similarity of how the word liberal may not have the same exact meaning in the Arab world as it does in America, but the word seems to carry a similar stigma. Fascinating, since those who advocate a "liberal" agenda there seem to be advancing the same values that American "conservatives" lay claim to. Problem is, laying claim to a value is not the same as practicing it. Catch thislast paragraph:

Far out numbered by Islamist organizations and sympathizers, Arab liberals face incredible odds. Rubin’s conclusion, that the Arabs must realize their faults and shortcomings, while coming up with solutions to the "thousand and one difficulties" facing the region, is not likely to please ideologues from the nationalist or Islamist camps. The Long War for Freedom answers the oft asked questions of "Why don’t Arabs and Muslims speak out against terrorism and aggression?" or "Where are the Arab Democrats?" by providing an abundance of clear and unequivocal examples, and presenting the arguments of Arab liberals in their own words. Prospects are bleak, but campaigners are committed and bold. Rubin’s book offers little hope as to the growth of liberal movements; that isn’t its point. It rather presents profiles in courage of brave Arabs who are working to put back in place the simplest foundations for democratization and liberalization in the Arab world. Rubin’s book is a must read for those concerned with or interested in Middle Eastern politics or history.


Seems like neo-conservatism is a world-wide phenomenon. Passing as patriotism, preserving and protecting traditional values, it seems to me nothing more than old-fashioned fundamentalism. Hmm?



WEDNESDAY, MAY 17, 2006


Nouri Lumendifi's encounter with prejudice

This remarkable high school kid of Middle Eastern extraction has been blogging a year and a half and doing a great job. I'm not sure, but I think his family may have come from Algeria or elsewhere in the Maghreb. Yesterday's post is a study in maturity and constraint in the face of what can only be described as mind-numbing ignorance on the part of a few of his classmates. As a fifth generation American citizen I used to be embarrassed by such behavior, but I have come to realize that their stripe of prejudice is a transnational quality found all over the world. Fortunately Nouri, like so many immigrants from all over the world before him, has learned to stick up for himself. This part of his post reads like a scene from a movie...
...I was chased home multiple times during 7th grade, for about two or three weeks after 9/11 as black and caucasian peers chased after me throwing rocks and bricks and shouted racial slurs (Ay-rab, "Afghan niggaaar," sandmonkey, desert bunny, Hadji, Usama, etc.) at me. I was beaten pretty badly on several occasions, often to the point where I was bleeding or had bruses or black eyes. The last time I did this I stood up for myself, as no other people would help me (not school administrators, not peers, not anyone). I confronted one kid in particular, Aaron, who took great pleasure in calling me "Afghan niggaaaar" and telling me to "go back to the desert". I engaged him in hand to hand combat. He punched me, I punched him, kicked him and eventually got him on the ground. I pulled him over to a telephone pole with many staples on it from different fliers and advertisements from over the years on it. As his posse watched I smacked his head into the telephone pole, and moved it up and down so that he was cut by the staples. I then walked off. They had no idea as to what to do and just sort of stood there. I was never physically assaulted in such a manner again, though I was still called names.

I am reminded of Al Capone's line that you can get further with a kind word and a gun than you can with just a kind word. In a more recent encounter his response is slightly less dramatic, and the sting of being the object of racist attitudes is still apparent. A dedication to non-violence holds me to another standard, but there is nothing in my system forbidding satisfaction if a non-pacifist takes a more forceful course in his own defense.
Last week I was also physically attacked by a group of four guys, none of whom I know or have seen before. These guys asked for my wallet, I said no, they pushed me, and said "Eye-racki, give up the oil money," I again said no. More slurs, "Fuckin' Ay-rab, go home." I told them I am going home if they would just step to the side. "Ay-rab doesn't know his place," I then shouted a profanity at them in Berber. I am not an Arab! They punched me. So I took a cheap shot and knocked one of the bastards in the nads and made off. I kept my wallet, by the way. Don't think I'm some kind of super fighter either; I'm skinny, damn near weightless and don't really know how to fight. I just know how to preserve, and I don't like fighting. I firmly believe the saying that "The ink of the scholar is worth more than the blood of the martyr".
This kid has class.
He's right, too, about the ink of the scholar...
Link here to my first post about Nouri.
Now go read his post from yesterday.


MONDAY, MAY 22, 2006


Nouri Lumendifi -- Fresh, bright voice of the future

Another fine outpouring from an articulate young man. Big heart, big intellect and big mouth. And I don't say that with any hint of malice. Young people don't put up with dishonesty, and this episode illustrates the point. In the end all battles are won or lost when facts are allowed to be known.
Last summer I attended a youth conference on diplomacy that took me to three Western European countries with a host of American youths from all over the United States. The contingent was overwhelmingly white, though there were four or five Arabs (all from Virginia, or New Jersey, with the exception being myself from Connecticut), a Persian (from LA), and perhaps two or three American blacks, each from different states.

At this conference we participated in a United Nations simulation. The couple of hundred odd mass of youths was divided into the various organs and committees of the UN. I was given China's seat on the UN Security Council, which was tasked with dealing with the genocide in Darfur. Before each meeting we were given briefings on debate procedure and resolution writing, as well as the background of the issue we were covering and our countries' backgrounds.

Nouri was assigned to role-play the Chinese delegate and the debate began. Unfortunately (or fortunately for this discussion) the moot debate got out of hand when a black girl from Missouri allowed her identity as an African-American to overcome her assigned role in the exercise. She attacked our hero for his vote, not because of his assigned role as delegate from China, but because he was not "black."

"You're not African," I said. The other kids went silent. "I'm more African than you. I think in Berber. I speak it. I have family living in Africa, and that fought for liberation from colonialism. I have citizenship in the African Union. What do you think you're doing telling me I'm a slave trader?"

"You're not African," she said again. "You're Arab."

"Sure, I'm Arab. And you're English. Being conquered by an Arab doesn't make you Arab."

She had no idea what I meant. I was just a swarthy Arab of uncertain origins to her.

"I'm African because I'm black," she blabbered. "You're not because you aren't black. It's simple, your people didn't come from Africa."

"My people sure as hell did come from Africa. Where do you get off being African because you're black? Is George Bush European because he's white? No, he's American, like I'm African and you're American."

She was mad. "You're only African because you people killed all the black people," this makes sense, huh?

"No, I'm African because my passport is Algerian, my family is from Africa and Berbers are African, not Arab," I told her.

"That's not African. That's white."


Enough of snips. Go read the entire scene for yourself. And remember that you are reading the words of a teen! As you read the start of the post you might forget. But when you get to the dialogue, you will know. For me, this kid is a breath of fresh air. He and his peers will save the country with a clear thinking and a spirit of principled truth-telling that will not be silenced.

1 comment:

KNL said...
THanks for the post!

Nouri

TUESDAY, JULY 04, 2006


Algerian Independence Day is July 5

Nouri Lumendifi is the most articulate teen-ager I have found blogging. I continue to be amazed by his maturity, insights and grasp of history. I am not at all surprised at his passion, however. It is the passion of youth which has driven progress from the start of human history and continues to do so now. Those who ignore such passion do so at their peril. I find it inspiring, thrilling.

Today's post is the story of Algerian independence which came in 1962 following an eight-year revolution. Do take a moment to check it out.
The Revolution was a diverse one, claimed by former "assimilationists" fed up with the inability of the colonial system to extend the rights of man to Algerian Muslims, pan-Arab nationalists, socialists, Marxists, communists, Islamists wishing to reinstate the Islamic political order in a Muslim land, Amazigh Berberists wishing to bring equality and prestige to their people, the everyday men and women of Algerian wishing to finally know what equality and opportunity felt like, and many other interest groups. They may have disagreed on the particulars of the Revolution, but all agreed that their aims could not be met under the rule of France, and that the colonial order had to be torn down to achieve the betterment of Algeria and her people.

And yes, it was a jihad, in the best sense of that word. Those who defile the notion with neolgisms such as Islamofascistsand use the word jihad in a pejorative sense only reveal the depth of their own ignorance.

How else to explain how this young man, this all-American kid with deep Algerian roots, can so clearly and openly make political arguments worthy of anyone wanting to advance the case for democracy? The current president of Algeria, like many manipulative leaders, is orchestrating an effort to extend term limits in order to continue past his constitutionally mandated time in office. Nouri finds this scenario reprehensible. The principled voice of youth will not be quiet.
The spirts of 1963 are present in Algeria to this very day, they can be seen everywhere one looks, from border to border in they eyes of Algerians young and old. President Bouteflika should take a lesson from Ferhat Abbas and withdraw his support for this shameful motion. The ramifications of this proposal are too great to ignore. The Algerian democracy is too young and too fragile to allow the egos of powerful men to manipulate the process at such an early stage. Never before has here been such an opportunity for Bouteflika to show his commitment to democracy and the rule of law as this upcoming Independence Day. If he shuns this chance by going ahead with this criminal plan, we will see his truest colors, and they certainly will not be red, green, and white.

On this Fourth of July I celebrate that the voice of freedom, revolution and emancipation from tyranny is alive and well. What better way to mark the significance of this day?

My own Independence Day post was published Saturday.Anyone interested link here.


MONDAY, JULY 31, 2006


Nouri Lumendifi makes my day.

This post by Nouri makes me feel better about the future. If every young person around is as bright, assertive and well-informed as he, any problems my generation leaves will be resolved quickly. It's hard to believe he's still a teen, except that he pours out his feelings all in a rush with little regard for hiding anything. Only young people have that much straightforward honesty.
I say rude things to other Arabs about their governments, or countries I should say, all the time. I tell Moroccans and Jordanians I think that their kings are backward. I told a Moroccan lady that made falafels in New York that I thought King Hassan was an imperialist. She didn't care. "I think he was a dick too. $2.50". When I was in Saudi Arabia I had a conversation with a guy who told he hated life in KSA. "There's nothing to do and we can't even flirt in school", we pretty much agreed the country kind of sucked. I am comfortable talking to Arabs about Arab governments; I don't think anybody honestly believes that "our" [Arab] systems are really all that great. I'm not familiar with Iranians, or "Persians" as some here call themselves. I read Iranian newspapers and websites that seem absolute. Monarchists that don't believe the royal family had anything wrong with it. Nationalistic young people that blame Arabs for anything wrong with the country. They seem touchy. Even arrogant.

This is a fun a read as you will find today. Go have a romp and don't miss this delightful snip:

The current Arab system is like an ugly woman. The Arab system when Iran is the regional superpower will be like an ugly woman on methemphetamines. It is easier to help and ugly woman become beautiful than a drugged out ugly woman.
I love it.
Nouri, you are a ray of sunshine for the future! I wish you were not exceptional, but I think you are.


~~~~§§§~~~~

And here is the link to what remains of his posts at Mideast Youth. 

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2006



Been watching this young man most of this year. Apparently he's leaving home to go to college. His reflections make wonderful reading. In my experience teens simply don't think or write like this. Give him another ten or fifteen years and he will be one of the country's most valuable intellectual assets. New Haven, Connecticut has left a mark on Nouri. He may change, but he will never forget. Good luck, Nouri. The world is your banana.

Item: I am kicking a soccer ball down the street, when it hits the wrong side of my foot and hits the window of a pretty blue house. I hear the rattle and the barking of a large dog. The ball stops rolling back to me half way down the lawn. An “ADT” security sign warms me that should I trespass here I will be prosecuted. I panic. The door opens, and a little old man sticks his neck out the door and shouts “Who’s done it!”
I confess, and the old man grows angry. “Whaddaya goin’ to do that for? What’er you doing around here?” Going home, sir. He is dissatisfied, and waddles over to my ball. “This yours, boy?” I am scared, the old man is wearing an undershirt, swimming trunks, a coat of white fir, and loafers; he is rather unsightly. My ball is in his hands now, and I cannot help but as for it back. I am very sorry for hitting his window. “When did you come here?” I haven’t the slight inclination as to what this buzzard is talking about, and I do not answer. He asks again, if I tell him, I am told he will give me my ball back. “I don’t know.”
This bitter looking, wrinkly buzz-cut old man, puts my soccer ball under his hairy arm and turns around, and goes back into his house, slamming the door behind him. He looks at me from the window and closes the curtains, with the look of “Good riddance!” on his pruney face.

***
My city was my making. The city’s greenery, its Mediterranean restaurants covered in New England snow, its poverty, and its seasons are not easily left behind. In Boston, there are millions. In New York there are millions still. In New Haven, there are perhaps a few hundred thousand, if that. There is pizza the world tells you to like and places that claim to have invented the hamburger. There are probably comparable claims made in other cities, but none of those are my city. I did not read Lenin on the steps of the public libraries of Boston; I did not witness white flight in Brooklyn Heights; and I did not have my first date on the real Broadway. I did all of this in New Haven. Loyalties of citizenship, religion, and ethnicity aside, I am from New Haven. Not genetically, but by an accident of geography.
Posted by Hoots at 6:49 AM

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Timothy Snyder Thread



0/20 This election will determine the future of our republic. Here are some principles for the preservation of freedom that I wrote nearly four years ago, when all of this was beginning. I share them again now in admiration of Americans who protest for justice and work for truth. 

1/20. Do not obey in advance. #OnTyranny

2/20. Defend institutions. #OnTyranny


3/20. Beware the one-party state. #OnTyranny


4/20. Take responsibility for the face of the world. #OnTyranny

5/20. Remember professional ethics. #OnTyranny

6/20. Be wary of paramilitaries. #OnTyranny

7/20. Be reflective if you must be armed. #OnTyranny

8/20. Stand out. #OnTyranny

9/20. Be kind to our language. #OnTyranny


10/20. Believe in truth. #OnTyranny

11/20. Investigate. #OnTyranny

12/20. Make eye contact and small talk. #OnTyranny
13/20. Practice corporeal politics. #OnTyranny
14/20. Establish a private life. #OnTyranny
15/20. Contribute to good causes. #OnTyranny
16/20. Learn from peers in other countries. #OnTyranny
17/20. Listen for dangerous words. #OnTyranny
18/20. Be calm when the unthinkable arrives. #OnTyranny
19/20. Be a patriot. #OnTyranny
20/20. Be as courageous as you can. #OnTyranny



h/t Threadreader
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1322546681842421766.html?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1d3Yh4wp4dTFFC_Zh9VgHIR8Kd7I5xlBQ8RSDCJCOr1fZbM2RFWk33sMU_aem_GmjUN-X1T3ri8ytyD5-0AA