Is Bab al-Mandab next?

 

In the context of the current global energy crisis, the 

Bab al-Mandab Strait

 is widely considered the next major geopolitical flashpoint. Following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month, attention has shifted to this secondary chokepoint as a critical threat to global supply chains. 

Current Situation

• Strategic Risk: With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, exporters like Saudi Arabia have relied on Red Sea ports such as Yanbu to bypass the Persian Gulf. Closing Bab al-Mandab would effectively sever this final maritime export route.
• Houthi Threats: Yemen's Houthi movement, an ally of Iran, recently declared "Hour Zero" for coordinated naval operations. They have stated their "fingers are on the trigger" to close the strait if the U.S. or Israel escalates military actions against Iran.
• Economic Impact:
  • Oil Prices: Analysts from Goldman Sachs warn that a closure could push oil prices toward $120 per barrel.
  • Global Supply: A "double chokepoint" closure of both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab would disrupt approximately 25–30% of global seaborne oil supply.
  • Shipping Delays: Vessels are already being forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 12 to 15 days to transit times and skyrocketing fuel costs. 

Market Outlook

The Polymarket prediction market for an "effective closure" of the strait is currently active, with a scheduled resolution date around April 29, 2026. As of mid-March, energy firms like BP and shipping giants like Maersk have already begun diverting vessels in anticipation of further disruption.